Macro & Strategy
Big-picture macro and strategy analysis: monetary policy, geopolitics, credit markets, cross-asset flows, and portfolio construction frameworks for serious investors.
6 articles
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Factor Carry & Relative Value: The Equity-Native Version of the Carry Trade
FX carry pays you to hold the higher-yielding currency; equities have an analog — get paid in cash flows and buybacks to hold cheap companies and short expensive ones. The real factor code, a 23-point measured carry spread, and the droughts and value traps that make it a risk premium.
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Cross-Sectional Momentum: The Equity-Native Version of the Trend Trade
Don’t ask whether the market is trending — ask which names are beating their peers. The 12-1 formula, our real basket code with rank hysteresis, and the measured sleeve: the refinement that added nothing, the hedge that hedged nothing, and a −37% crash month.
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Mining Alpha From Fundamental Data: What Actually Predicts Returns — and the Traps the Mining Harness Sets
Our edge isn’t satellite data — it’s reading financial statements more rigorously than the crowd. The IC table behind our long/short factor set, regenerated from our own point-in-time panels — plus the two seductive signals we refused to trade.
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Real-Time Macro Regime Detection: Knowing Where You Are Without Borrowing From the Future
You don’t need to forecast GDP — you need an honest label for the regime you’re in, using only data available that day. Our eleven-indicator PIT risk score, the code, its 2016–2026 timeline, and the same book’s returns in bull, bear and high-vol regimes.
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The Pitfalls of Revised Data: Why Point-in-Time Discipline Makes or Breaks a Backtest
Revised data is how beautiful backtests lie. Filings arrive a median 42 days after the quarter ends; a naive backtest uses them early — and on our own data that nearly doubles a real factor’s IC. The point-in-time fix, with the exact code.
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Introduction to Quantamental Trading: How a Macro Thesis Becomes a Rule, a Rank, and a Reproducible Backtest
A discretionary trader and a quant are not enemies. How a plain-English macro thesis becomes a ranked, gated, reproducible rule — with the pipeline skeleton, real code from our v7 engine, and an honest 2016–2026 low-volatility backtest.