Nvidia's $96 Billion Quarter Lifts Nasdaq Futures 1%

U.S. equity futures turn higher Thursday after Nvidia delivered another upside reset for the artificial intelligence trade. Nasdaq 100 futures gain about 1.05%, S&P 500 futures rise 0.44%, and Dow futures are nearly flat. Nvidia advances roughly 5% before the bell after quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than double the prior-year level, while its $108 billion outlook for the current quarter exceeded Wall Street's pre-report expectation.

The earnings response is broader than one chipmaker. Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta all post double-digit premarket gains after their own reports showed resilient enterprise demand, giving investors evidence that spending is reaching software and security as well as servers. That breadth improves the quality of the AI rally. It also raises the bar: with Nvidia valued as the market's largest earnings engine, strong results must translate into durable index participation rather than a one-session gap.

Rates remain the main restraint. Wednesday's core PCE inflation rate held at 3.3% year over year, headline inflation accelerated to 3.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished near 4.65%. Initial jobless claims and inventory data arrive at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday. The most constructive path is an AI-led advance with yields contained below 4.70%; a yield breakout would quickly test the premium now being paid for growth.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Futures, volatility, rates, commodities, currency, and digital-asset indications as of approximately 7:05 a.m. Eastern. Extended-hours prices can change rapidly.

Overnight Developments

Nvidia clears the AI demand hurdle

Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter report was stronger than the already demanding consensus. Revenue rose 106% year over year and 18% sequentially to $96.22 billion. Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion, up 117% from a year ago. Adjusted earnings were $2.22 per share, above the $2.09 consensus, and adjusted gross margin was 75.0%.

The forward signal was equally important. Nvidia guided current-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, versus a pre-report consensus near $104.9 billion. The forecast assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, so it does not depend on an immediate reopening of that market. Management expects adjusted gross margin near 74.0%, which indicates that rapid platform transitions and supply investment are not erasing the company's pricing power.

Cash deployment adds another layer. Nvidia returned about $26 billion to shareholders during the first half of the fiscal year and still had roughly $99 billion available under its repurchase authorization. Investors will now compare that capital return with the growth of operating expenses and the massive customer spending required to support the revenue trajectory. The first test is whether Nvidia can hold the $218-$225 premarket zone after the open.

Software and security broaden the signal

The enterprise reports reduce the risk that AI infrastructure spending is isolated from applications. Salesforce reported $11.3 billion of revenue, up 11%, and current remaining performance obligations of $33.5 billion, up 14%. Management raised full-year revenue guidance by $200 million. Salesforce shares rise about 11.1% before the bell.

CrowdStrike generated $1.47 billion of revenue, up 26%, and record net new annual recurring revenue of $333 million, up 51%. Its shares gain roughly 11.6%. Okta's revenue increased 11%, subscription revenue rose 12%, and current remaining performance obligations advanced 14%; its stock jumps about 23.6%.

Hot PCE keeps valuation risk alive

July PCE inflation was not benign. The headline price index rose 0.2% for the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, while the core index rose 0.2% and 3.3%, respectively. Personal income increased 0.4%, but real consumer spending was effectively flat and the personal saving rate was only 3.0%. The mix suggests that inflation is absorbing part of the nominal income gain.

The result explains why the 10-year yield remains near 4.66% even after second-quarter GDP growth was left at a modest 1.5% annual rate. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a cleaner measure of domestic demand, were revised up to 4.2%. Growth is therefore not weak enough to give the Fed an easy inflation tradeoff, and technology valuations remain sensitive to every move toward 4.70% in the 10-year yield.

Global Markets

Asia closed mixed as Nvidia's results supported semiconductor markets but regional macro concerns limited the advance. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.5% to 6,909.81, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.5%, and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.6% to 3,935.99. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2% to 66,162.72, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.4% to 25,548.83, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.9% to 9,041.70.

China reported that industrial profit growth slowed to 11.2% year over year in July from 15.1% in June. The level still indicates expansion, but the deceleration and Hong Kong's decline show that the global AI bid is not eliminating concern about uneven Chinese demand. The stronger Kospi and Taiex performance provides the cleaner read-through for chip supply chains.

Europe trades defensively around the U.S. technology rally. Germany's DAX gains about 0.2% to 26,346, while France's CAC 40 falls roughly 0.8% to 8,398 and Britain's FTSE 100 declines 0.5% to 10,823. The regional split suggests that investors are rewarding direct technology exposure rather than making a broad global growth bet.

Wednesday's U.S. close was nearly unchanged ahead of Nvidia. The S&P 500 slipped 1.58 points, or 0.02%, to 7,675.70. The Dow lost 113.52 points to 53,463.88, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 21.10 points to 26,130.20. That quiet cash close gives Thursday's opening gap a clear test: gains must extend above 7,720 rather than merely recover Wednesday's narrow range.

Macro and Rates

Initial jobless claims are the morning's highest-frequency labor signal. Consensus centers near 208,000 for the week ended August 22, up slightly from 206,000. Continuing claims are expected near 1.79 million. A result close to forecast would preserve the view that labor conditions are firm enough to support demand without immediately adding wage pressure.

The market's difficult outcome would be claims below 195,000 combined with a 10-year yield above 4.70%. That would strengthen the higher-for-longer rate narrative just as the Nasdaq opens with a large earnings-driven gap. Claims above 225,000 would lower yields but could shift concern toward slowing employment. The equity-friendly middle is roughly 200,000-215,000 with the 10-year holding between 4.60% and 4.68%.

Investors are also preparing for the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, which runs August 27-29. Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. After the hot PCE reading, markets need clarity on whether the Fed views the inflation pressure as persistent enough to require another rate increase or manageable without tightening into slower headline GDP growth.

Corporate News

Nvidia remains the index driver, but the secondary earnings reactions determine whether the move has breadth. Salesforce at $228.53, CrowdStrike near $206.87, and Okta around $161.40 all show double-digit gains. Nutanix advances roughly 4.5% after its report. Together, the moves favor software, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, and networking shares at the open.

HP Inc. moves in the opposite direction, falling about 7.8%. Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 12.5% to $15.7 billion and adjusted earnings were $0.83 per share, including an $0.11 benefit from a tariff refund. The negative stock reaction shows that investors are looking through one-time help and focusing on the margin and component-cost outlook. It is an important reminder that stronger technology demand does not protect every hardware business equally.

Marvell Technology reports after Thursday's close. Consensus expects adjusted earnings near $0.93 per share on approximately $2.71 billion of revenue. The stock gains about 7% before the bell on Nvidia's read-through, raising the execution bar for its data-center commentary. Workday, Affirm, and Ulta Beauty are also scheduled after the close, creating a mix of enterprise and consumer demand signals.

Premarket Movers

Extended-hours indications as of approximately 7:05 a.m. Eastern. Premarket prices may move sharply on limited volume.

Economic Calendar

The claims response should be visible first in the 10-year yield, dollar, homebuilders, and unprofitable growth shares. The trade and inventory data matter for third-quarter GDP tracking but are less likely to displace Nvidia as the opening catalyst. The Kansas City Fed survey arrives after the first two hours of cash trading and can influence industrial breadth into midday.

The AlphaEdge Prediction

Wednesday's S&P 500 close at 7,675.70 is the cash anchor. Nvidia creates a favorable opening setup, but the index must convert a concentrated technology gap into broader participation. The first confirmation is an S&P move above 7,720 while the Nasdaq future holds 29,450. The second is stable yields after claims.

Base case: Claims land between 200,000 and 215,000, the 10-year yield remains below 4.68%, and Nvidia holds above $218. The S&P 500 trades between 7,690 and 7,750. Software, chips, and communication services lead, while equal-weight performance is positive but trails. A close above 7,720 would confirm stabilization and keep 7,775 in reach.

Bull case: Claims are close to consensus, the 10-year yield moves toward 4.60%, Nvidia clears $225, and Nasdaq futures hold above 29,650. The S&P 500 breaks 7,750 and targets 7,775-7,800. Salesforce and CrowdStrike retain most of their premarket gains, showing that AI demand has moved beyond a single hardware winner.

Bear case: Claims below 195,000 lift the 10-year yield above 4.70%, or the post-earnings bid fades despite stable rates. Nvidia loses $218, Nasdaq futures break 29,450, and the S&P 500 fills the opening gap before testing 7,650-7,675. A VIX move above 15.8 would confirm that investors are de-risking ahead of Warsh's Friday speech.

The dominant narrative is an AI earnings rally with unusually broad corporate support, constrained by inflation and duration risk. Nvidia's $108 billion outlook deserves a positive index response, while Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta make the signal more credible. Use 7,690-7,750 as the base-case S&P 500 range, require a close above 7,720 for stabilization, and treat a 10-year yield above 4.70% as the clearest threat to the rally.