Micron’s Blowout Ignites a Global Chip Melt-Up; Nasdaq Futures Surge and the Nikkei Hits a Record

Georgi Kuzmanov Senior Equity Analyst & Founder Columbia MSFE · 13+ years equity research

The two-day fear that the artificial-intelligence memory boom was cresting was answered after Wednesday’s close, and the answer was emphatic. Micron reported the kind of quarter that does not just beat estimates but redraws the map: fiscal third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% from a year ago, adjusted earnings of $25.11 a share, and — the number that stopped the selloff cold — fourth-quarter guidance of roughly $50 billion in revenue at a record gross margin near 86%. Management said its high-bandwidth-memory (HBM) supply is sold out through the end of 2026, with demand running more than 50% ahead of what it can build. The stock is up about 17% in premarket trade toward a fresh record, and it has dragged the entire chip complex up with it.

The read-through went global overnight. Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly 2.2% and S&P 500 futures about 0.7%, while in Asia the chip trade detonated higher: Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 4.61% to a record 72,366.34, and South Korea’s Kospi posted one of its biggest single-day gains in years as SK Hynix — the very company whose capacity scare started this week’s rout — soared roughly 12%. Qualcomm, which surged 15% in the prior session after nearly doubling its 2029 non-handset revenue projection, added to the sense that the semiconductor cycle is broadening, not breaking. Just two days after the worst chip selloff in months, the memory trade has reversed in spectacular fashion.

And yet the broad market is not euphoric, which is the tension worth holding onto today. The Dow is barely changed in futures, the rally is narrow and chip-concentrated, and our Fear & Greed read sits at 25.8 — still firmly in “Fear” territory. Underneath the AI fireworks, the calendar is heavy: a flood of U.S. data lands at 8:30 a.m. ET (durable goods, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP, and weekly jobless claims), the big banks are opening the capital-return spigot after passing the Fed’s stress test, and crude is sliding again as Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic normalizes. All of it is a warm-up for the only macro print that can override the chip story this week: Friday’s PCE inflation report.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Wednesday’s regular session was the calm before this storm. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat at 7,358.22 (−0.10%) as a defensive rotation took hold: the Dow rose 0.35% to 51,848.90 on homebuilder and value strength, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.43% to 25,476.64 ahead of Micron’s report. The small-cap Russell 2000 added 0.37% to 2,986.63. Those were the prices markets carried into the close — before Micron rewrote the tape.

Overnight Developments

Micron becomes the memory market’s margin king

The detail underneath Micron’s headline is what re-rated the sector. Gross margin in the quarter reached roughly 85%, up from about 39% a year earlier — a level that, on these prints, eclipses even the richest of the AI names and turns memory, long the most cyclical and commoditized corner of semiconductors, into the highest-margin business in the group. Management framed the demand picture in unusually concrete terms: 16 long-term agreements representing approximately $100 billion in contracted revenue, free cash flow of about $18.3 billion in the quarter, and HBM capacity sold out through 2026 with chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra describing supply as tight “beyond 2027.” Wall Street responded by chasing targets higher overnight — Needham to $1,550 and TD Cowen to $1,500 — on a stock already up roughly 260% this year.

The chip complex re-rates around the world

SK Hynix is the most striking reversal. The Korean memory giant’s report earlier this week that it would slow HBM-capacity expansion was the spark that sank chips on Monday and Tuesday; this morning the same name is up about 12% as investors reinterpret tight supply as pricing power, and as the company advances a roughly $29.4 billion capital raise tied to a planned Nasdaq listing. Qualcomm’s prior-session pop on a far more ambitious 2029 outlook for its non-handset businesses — automotive, PC, and AI-edge silicon — reinforced the message that demand is widening beyond the obvious GPU names. Broadcom, Nvidia, and the broader semiconductor group are indicated higher in sympathy. The same memory-shortage narrative that felt like a threat 48 hours ago now reads as a multi-year tailwind.

Oil keeps sliding as Hormuz traffic normalizes

Crude is the mirror image of the chip melt-up. WTI is down about 1.5% to near $69.28, extending Wednesday’s slide below $70 and erasing nearly all of the war-risk premium built up during the recent Gulf tensions. Tanker tracking shows traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal — on the order of 72 vessels carrying some 19 million barrels in a single 24-hour window — and U.S. officials have publicly declared that Iran’s ability to close the strait has been neutralized. The caveat: Tehran continues to warn that transit without its approval is “unacceptable,” so a residual tail risk lingers even as the spot price says the crisis has passed. Lower energy costs are a quiet tailwind for the inflation data due Friday.

Banks open the capital-return spigot

After every one of the 32 lenders in this year’s Federal Reserve stress test passed — the central bank judged they could absorb roughly $708 billion in hypothetical losses and keep lending — the payouts came fast. JPMorgan announced a $50 billion buyback authorization, and Goldman Sachs raised its dividend, with more announcements expected across the group through the day. With balance-sheet strength confirmed and capital being returned, financials are positioned as one of the few non-chip pockets of leadership in an otherwise narrow tape.

Global Markets

Asia traded the Micron read-through with abandon. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 4.61% to a record 72,366.34, led by chip-equipment and memory-linked names, while South Korea’s Kospi logged a historic daily gain on SK Hynix’s roughly 12% surge. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.23% to 4,120.28, and India’s Sensex and Nifty each added about 0.4%. The notable laggard was Hong Kong: the Hang Seng fell 1.43% to 23,076.91 as its index-heavy internet platforms weighed, a reminder that the rally is specifically a semiconductor story rather than a broad risk-on wave.

Europe opened firmly higher and held the gains into midday. The DAX rose 0.47% to 24,855.41, the FTSE 100 added 0.25% to 10,488.17, the CAC 40 gained 0.26% to 8,407.12, and the Euro Stoxx 50 climbed 0.58%. Sector dispersion told the same story as everywhere else: the Stoxx technology sub-index jumped about 2.4% while energy lagged, down roughly 0.4%, tracking the slide in crude.

Macro and Rates

The Treasury market is calm relative to the equity fireworks. The 10-year yield is holding near 4.40% and the 2-year near 4.16%, leaving the curve only modestly positive — a configuration that says the bond market still expects the hawkish Warsh Fed to keep policy tight rather than ease. The dollar is firm, with the euro hovering around $1.135, and gold is essentially flat near $4,012 after its recent run. Bitcoin remains the risk-appetite outlier, hovering near $61,000 and close to its 52-week low, a sign that speculative flows have not broadly re-risked even as chip stocks melt up.

Rate-cut hopes remain off the table. Futures still price the July 29 FOMC as a coin-flip between a hold and another hike — roughly a one-in-three probability of a move to 3.75%–4.00% — with the current target range at 3.50%–3.75%. With headline CPI running at 4.2% year over year, Friday’s PCE report (core seen near 3.3%) is the swing factor: a hot print would harden the hawkish case and could cap the chip rally regardless of how strong the AI story looks.

Corporate News

• Micron (MU): Record fiscal Q3 ($41.46B revenue, $25.11 adjusted EPS); guided Q4 to roughly $50B at a record ~86% gross margin; HBM sold out through 2026; targets raised to $1,550 (Needham) and $1,500 (TD Cowen).
• SK Hynix: Up ~12% in Seoul; advancing a ~$29.4 billion capital raise tied to a planned Nasdaq listing.
• Qualcomm (QCOM): Carrying momentum from a 15% prior-session jump after roughly doubling its 2029 non-handset revenue projection.
• JPMorgan (JPM) & Goldman Sachs (GS): $50B buyback and a dividend increase, respectively, after all 32 banks cleared the Fed stress test.
• Earnings today: McCormick (MKC, ~$0.70 EPS expected), Darden (DRI, ~$3.64), and TD SYNNEX (SNX, ~$4.12) headline a light corporate slate.

Premarket Movers

*Qualcomm’s ~15% move came in the prior session on its raised 2029 outlook and is carrying into Thursday.

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

Micron has given the bulls exactly the catalyst they needed, and the premarket math is straightforward: with S&P 500 futures up about 0.74%, the index is set to open near 7,410, with the chip-heavy Nasdaq doing the heavy lifting. The question is not whether stocks open higher — they will — but how much of the gap holds once the 8:30 data and the reality of a Fear & Greed reading at 25.8 reassert themselves.

Base case: We expect the S&P 500 to trade in a 7,390–7,470 range, opening strong on the chip melt-up before settling as the broad market lags the semiconductors. A constructive but unspectacular set of data (claims near 226K, GDP confirming ~2.6%) would let the gains stick without inviting a new bid in rates.

Bull case: If the data are benign and the chip leadership broadens into software and other megacaps, the S&P reclaims 7,472 and presses toward 7,500, setting up Friday’s PCE as a potential breakout trigger rather than a hurdle — the scenario the loudest bulls, including Fundstrat’s Tom Lee with his 8,000 year-end target, are betting on.

Bear case: A hot durable-goods or claims surprise, or simple profit-taking into a narrow, overbought chip pop, fades the open and drags the S&P back toward 7,340–7,300. Watch the equal-weight index and market breadth: if only the chips are green by midday, treat the rally with suspicion into the PCE print.

Micron didn’t just beat — it confirmed that the AI bottleneck has moved to memory and that the shortage is structural, and that single fact is powerful enough to lift the Nikkei to a record and Nasdaq futures more than 2%. But a chip-only rally on a “Fear” sentiment reading is a narrow foundation. Enjoy the melt-up, respect its momentum, and remember that Friday’s PCE — not Micron — holds the gavel on whether this is a new uptrend or a one-day reprieve.

Georgi Kuzmanov

Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.