Ceasefire Rally Extends as S&P 500 Hits 6,825 — Amazon Surges 5.6%, VIX Plunges Below 20, Fed Minutes Flag Two-Sided Iran Risks

Wall Street extended its ceasefire-fueled rally for a second straight session on Thursday, with the S&P 500 adding another 0.62% to close at 6,824.66 — its highest level in more than a week. The advance was steadier and more measured than Wednesday’s explosive 2.5% surge, suggesting the initial euphoria over the US-Iran ceasefire is gradually giving way to a more nuanced risk assessment. Amazon led the charge among mega-caps with a 5.6% gain, while the VIX cratered below 20 for the first time since the conflict began in early March.

But the session was far from a clean victory lap. Cracks in the ceasefire narrative widened throughout the day as Israel continued airstrikes on Beirut, Iran disputed reports that the Strait of Hormuz had reopened, and the Financial Times reported that Tehran would demand Bitcoin payments for passage through the critical waterway. Oil prices rebounded sharply after Wednesday’s collapse, and the FOMC minutes released late Wednesday revealed that Fed officials see “two-sided risks” from the conflict — acknowledging that the war could simultaneously stoke inflation and weaken growth.

The mood on trading desks: cautiously optimistic, but nobody is putting away the sandbags just yet.

Closing Scoreboard

What Happened

Thursday’s session was a study in the market digesting a headline-driven rally and separating genuine relief from premature optimism. After Wednesday’s barn-burner — the Dow’s best single day in a year — investors came in with lower adrenaline but still a willingness to add risk. The S&P 500 opened slightly higher and ground upward through the afternoon, finding its best levels into the close.

The real story was beneath the surface. Hedge funds closed equity short positions at the fastest pace since the Covid-era rally of 2020, according to Bloomberg, a clear sign that the professional money crowd is repositioning for a potential easing of geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, a Reuters investigation revealed that traders placed roughly $1 billion in oil short positions just hours before Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement — a disclosure that will likely draw regulatory scrutiny.

The FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting, released Wednesday evening, provided important context. Most officials judged that inflation progress could be “slower than previously expected” due to higher oil prices from the Iran conflict layered on top of tariff effects from 2025. They acknowledged the risk of inflation “running persistently above the Committee’s objective” had increased. Yet the consensus held at just one rate cut in 2026, with the fed funds rate target range maintained at 3.50%–3.75%. Almost all participants saw it as “too early to know” how the war would ultimately affect the economy or monetary policy.

Mega-Cap and Key Movers

Amazon was the standout performer, surging 5.6% to $233.65 on reports of a major AWS government cloud contract and broad rotation into growth names as Treasury yields eased. Meta extended its post-Muse Spark rally, adding another 2.6% after Wednesday’s 6.5% explosion. The AI model, developed by Meta’s new Superintelligence Labs under former Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, is being positioned as competitive with ChatGPT and Gemini.

On the downside, Palantir suffered a brutal 7.3% decline after “Big Short” investor Michael Burry publicly stated that Anthropic’s restricted-release Claude Mythos model is “eating Palantir’s lunch” in the government AI contracting space. GoPro cratered 12.3% after announcing it would slash 23% of its workforce in a cost-cutting move.

Sector Breakdown

Consumer Discretionary led all sectors with a 2.1% gain, powered almost entirely by Amazon’s outsized move. Communication Services was the runner-up, riding Meta’s AI-driven momentum. Energy was the sole sector in the red, a somewhat counterintuitive result given that oil prices actually rose on the day — but Exxon’s disclosure of a 6% production hit from the war’s effects on UAE and Qatar operations weighed on the group.

Global Markets

Asia-Pacific

Asian markets gave back some of Wednesday’s gains as ceasefire skepticism grew during the Asian trading session. The Nikkei 225 shed 0.8%, the Hang Seng fell 0.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.6% after surging more than 4% the previous day. The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which had posted its best single day since Covid on Wednesday with a 5.5% gain, consolidated with a modest 0.3% pullback.

Europe

European markets turned negative after initially trying to extend Wednesday’s euphoria. The DAX fell 1.14% to 23,807, the CAC 40 slipped 0.22%, and the FTSE 100 was essentially flat at 10,603 (down 0.05%). The Stoxx 50 lost 0.29%. The overnight deterioration in ceasefire narratives — particularly the Lebanon complications and Hormuz uncertainty — weighed more heavily on European risk appetite than on Wall Street.

Fixed Income and Commodities

Treasury yields continued their post-ceasefire descent but at a decelerating pace. The 10-year yield ticked down 3 basis points to 4.26%, extending the decline from its war-era peak above 4.40%. The 2-year yield eased 2 bps to 3.78%. The yield curve maintained its modestly positive slope at +48 bps, though some curve-watchers noted that the 2s/10s spread has narrowed slightly, reflecting reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

The oil complex sent mixed signals. After collapsing by the most since the Covid crash on Wednesday, crude rebounded sharply: WTI climbed 2.6% to $93.40 and Brent rose 2.1% to $100.15. The bounce reflected growing doubt about Iran’s willingness to actually reopen Hormuz, reinforced by reports of newly placed sea mines in the waterway. Iran’s demand for Bitcoin-denominated transit fees — $1 per barrel paid in cryptocurrency, calculated by Iranian authorities after tankers email their cargo details — added a logistical layer of complexity that could slow any clearing of the strait.

Gold edged higher to $4,782, maintaining its role as a geopolitical hedge even as equity volatility declined. The dollar retreated to a four-week low as the ceasefire-related risk-on trade weighed on safe-haven demand. Bitcoin faded from its intraday high of $72,600 to close near $71,300, as the Satoshi Nakamoto identity saga continued — cryptographer Adam Back denied being Bitcoin’s creator after the New York Times named him in an investigation.

Corporate News

Earnings

Delta Air Lines beat Q1 EPS and revenue estimates on steady demand from more affluent customers, but the numbers were overshadowed by a $2 billion year-over-year increase in quarterly fuel costs. Delta will “meaningfully reduce” short-term capacity growth plans. The airline’s ownership of an oil refinery is expected to provide a $300 million benefit this quarter. Southwest Airlines rose 6.7%, United 7.9%, and Delta 3.8% as investors cheered the sector’s resilience.

Constellation Brands beat Q4 EPS and revenue estimates on momentum in its beer and wine units but withdrew full-year guidance, citing a “rapidly evolving macro environment.”

AI and Technology

Meta launched Muse Spark, the first model from its Superintelligence Labs. Internal benchmarks showed it outscoring xAI’s Grok on most metrics and competing with models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Meta plans to invest $115–$135 billion in AI capital expenditure, nearly double last year.

Anthropic restricted distribution of its Claude Mythos Preview model to just a few dozen companies — including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and JPMorgan — under Project Glasswing. The model has identified thousands of software vulnerabilities, including a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD. JPMorgan affirmed overweight ratings on CrowdStrike ($475 target) and Palo Alto Networks ($200 target) as Glasswing partners.

Layoffs and Restructuring

Disney announced plans to lay off as many as 1,000 employees. GoPro said it would eliminate 23% of its workforce. Paramount president Jeff Shell stepped down to focus on a $150 million lawsuit alleging he leaked corporate secrets, including details about the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition.

Other Headlines

• Visa unveiled an AI agent-powered payment platform for businesses
• Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF that drew $34 million on day one
• Blackstone said easing Mideast tensions could boost PE dealmaking
• Goldman Sachs embraced “picks and shovels” of AI with increased capex plans
• Ford asked the Trump administration for tariff relief on the F-150
• Mortgage rates fell for the first time in weeks following the ceasefire

Economic Data

No major US economic data releases today. All eyes are on tomorrow’s double header: the delayed February PCE Price Index at 8:30 AM ET, followed by the March Consumer Price Index. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model estimates February core PCE at 2.83% year-over-year, easing from 3.1% in January. March headline CPI is expected to jump to 3.4% year-over-year from 2.4%, largely reflecting the oil price shock from the Iran conflict. Core CPI is estimated at 2.60%.

After-Hours Movers

The after-hours session was relatively quiet heading into Friday’s inflation reports. Levi Strauss continued its post-earnings momentum after reporting that direct-to-consumer sales exceeded 50% of quarterly revenue for the first time. The company offset tariff pressure by raising prices, accounting for roughly half of its 14% revenue growth. Shares traded up modestly after hours.

The AlphaEdge Take

Two days into the ceasefire rally, and the easy gains are likely behind us. Wednesday’s 2.5% moonshot was the relief trade; Thursday’s 0.6% follow-through was the market deciding, on balance, that the ceasefire is marginally more likely to hold than to collapse. But “marginally” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

The fundamentals of the ceasefire remain deeply uncertain. Israel’s strikes on Lebanon — which killed 182 people and which VP Vance characterized as a “legitimate misunderstanding” — have already frayed the deal within 48 hours. Iran disputes that Hormuz is open, new sea mines may have been laid, and the crypto toll system is more of a political statement than a workable logistics plan. JD Vance heading to Islamabad on Saturday for direct negotiations is encouraging, but the gap between a two-week pause and a durable peace remains enormous.

What matters now is tomorrow’s inflation data. If March CPI comes in at or above 3.4% headline, the Fed’s “wait and see” posture from the FOMC minutes will harden into something more hawkish. The market is currently pricing just one rate cut in 2026, and a hot print could push even that expectation into question. On the other hand, a cooler-than-expected core reading would give risk assets room to extend this rally into next week, particularly with Goldman Sachs kicking off bank earnings season on Monday.

The VIX below 20 is a bullish signal but also a warning: the market is getting comfortable with a ceasefire that hasn’t yet produced a single barrel of oil flowing through an open Hormuz. We’re positioned cautiously bullish with tight stops, expecting the S&P 500 to hold 6,750 support on any pullback and potentially test 6,900 if the inflation data cooperates and the ceasefire survives the weekend.