Ceasefire Frays as Iran Says Three Clauses Breached — Oil Rebounds 4%, Hormuz Still Closed, March CPI Looms

The ceasefire euphoria that powered Tuesday’s monster rally is evaporating fast. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told state television overnight that three clauses of the two-week truce have been contravened, Israeli strikes continued in Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz—whose conditional reopening was supposed to be the centrepiece of the deal—remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic passing through. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a modest pullback, Brent crude is rebounding nearly 4% to $98, and Asia sold off broadly as the market pivots from pricing peace to pricing uncertainty.

This is the reality check we warned about yesterday. The ceasefire was never a peace deal—it was a two-week window to get to Islamabad for formal negotiations on Friday. Less than 48 hours in, the cracks are already visible. With March CPI data due Friday (consensus 3.4%, potentially juiced by war-driven energy costs), the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” posture looks increasingly entrenched. Traders face a delicate balancing act: geopolitical tail risk hasn’t gone away, oil is re-pricing higher, and the inflation pipeline is about to get a fresh read.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Ceasefire Unravelling Before It Begins

The speed with which the ceasefire narrative has shifted is striking. Tuesday’s deal, brokered by Pakistan, was supposed to deliver a two-week pause in hostilities and a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with formal talks in Islamabad on Friday. Within 48 hours, Iran’s parliament speaker is publicly accusing the US of breaching three clauses—without specifying which ones—while Israeli military operations in Lebanon continue unabated.

Critically, the Hormuz situation has not improved. Despite Iran’s pledge to allow “coordinated” transit, major shipping lines are not resuming normal operations. Maersk reiterated overnight that it “did not have certainty to resume normal operations” through the strait. The Financial Times reported separately that Iran is exploring crypto-denominated tolls for tanker transit—a move that would effectively monetize its chokehold on global oil flows while circumventing sanctions infrastructure.

Oil Rebounds as Market Re-Prices Risk

Brent crude rebounded 3.5% to $98.10 overnight after Wednesday’s crushing 10%+ plunge—its worst single-day drop in six years. WTI followed suit, jumping 3.8% to $91.06. The reversal reflects how quickly the market has pivoted from pricing peace to pricing uncertainty about whether the ceasefire survives the weekend, let alone the full two weeks.

The Brent forward curve tells the story: the front-month contract at $98.10 versus July at $92.55 and December at $80.41 creates one of the steepest backwardation structures in recent memory. The physical market remains extraordinarily tight—recall that physical Brent briefly hit a record $144.42 earlier in the crisis—even as paper markets oscillate on headline risk.

Disney Announces 1,000 Layoffs Under New CEO

In corporate news, Disney is laying off up to 1,000 employees in the first round of cuts under new CEO Josh D’Amaro, according to Deadline. The restructuring signals D’Amaro’s intent to streamline operations after succeeding Bob Iger. Despite the layoff news, DIS shares closed up 3.55% on Tuesday’s broad rally. Markets will watch whether the cuts are received as bullish cost discipline or a sign of deeper operational challenges.

Global Markets

Asia Sells Off Broadly

Asian markets reversed a portion of Wednesday’s ceasefire rally, with declining stocks outnumbering advancing ones by roughly two-to-one across the region. India was the worst performer as oil-sensitive emerging markets repriced the commodity rebound.

Europe Opens Lower

European bourses opened in the red as the ceasefire euphoria faded. Energy stocks are catching a bid on the oil rebound, but the broader tape is weaker on concern that the Hormuz situation remains unresolved and the oil price recovery will complicate the ECB’s easing timeline.

Macro and Rates

The 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady at 4.33%, essentially unchanged from Monday’s close after wiping out an earlier rally on concern that higher oil prices would feed back into inflation. The dollar index (DXY) is testing the $99 level—extremely weak by recent standards—as EUR/USD pushes through conflict-range highs at 1.1672. ING analysts note that “sticky ECB pricing supports the euro,” while the dollar faces headwinds from both geopolitical uncertainty and eroding confidence in the US fiscal trajectory.

Gold at $4,756 is holding up remarkably well considering the risk-on ceasefire move. The pullback from Tuesday’s session peak has been shallow—a sign that the physical bid remains strong and that markets are not fully convinced the geopolitical premium should be unwound. Bitcoin is flat at $71,239, holding above $70,000 after the ceasefire-fueled pop. CoinDesk analysts describe this as “the most constructive price action since the war began six weeks ago.”

Corporate News

Ackman’s Universal Music Bid

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has reportedly tabled a roughly €55 billion bid for Universal Music Group, according to multiple reports. The deal would be one of the largest media acquisitions in history and signals Ackman’s conviction that music rights represent a durable, inflation-protected cash-flow stream.

Anthropic Revenue Hits $30 Billion Run Rate

AI darling Anthropic has reportedly reached a $30 billion annualised revenue run rate, underscoring the breakneck growth in enterprise AI adoption. Goldman Sachs separately published a note arguing that Big Tech remains “undervalued” relative to AI-driven earnings growth potential, pointing to Meta (+6.5% Tuesday), Alphabet (+3.9%), and Amazon (+3.5%) as primary beneficiaries.

Samsung Reports Record $38 Billion Quarterly Profit

Samsung Electronics posted a record quarterly operating profit of roughly $38 billion, driven by surging demand for HBM memory chips used in AI training infrastructure. The result validates the thesis that the AI supply chain remains in a structural shortage, benefiting memory producers and semiconductor equipment makers.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

Base Case (60% probability): The S&P 500 opens slightly lower and trades in a tight range between 6,750 and 6,810. The profit-taking impulse is real but modest—Tuesday’s rally was too broad-based to reverse meaningfully in a single session absent a genuine catalyst. The market digests the ceasefire wobbles, watches the oil rebound, and largely treads water ahead of Friday’s CPI. Energy catches a bid on the oil reversal, partially offsetting weakness elsewhere. Volume is below average as traders position for the CPI print.

Bull Case (20%): If Islamabad talks are confirmed on schedule for Friday and any ceasefire clarifications come from diplomatic channels, the pullback gets bought aggressively. Headlines around Iran conceding on Hormuz tolls could reignite the “peace trade”—a move toward 6,830+ is possible. Tech continues to lead on the Goldman note.

Bear Case (20%): Iran formally suspends the ceasefire or a significant military escalation emerges. Brent spikes back above $100 and the oil-inflation-rates doom loop re-engages. In this scenario, S&P 500 could test the 6,700 level, VIX jumps back toward 25, and the “ceasefire dividend” evaporates entirely. Watch for any Hormuz-related shipping incident as a trigger.

S&P 500 Expected Range: 6,750–6,810.