Stocks Rise as Nvidia Tops $5 Trillion and Dovish-Leaning Fed Minutes Put the Record Back in View

Georgi Kuzmanov Senior Equity Analyst & Founder Columbia MSFE · 13+ years equity research

The mood has flipped back to risk-on, and it took two catalysts to do it. Overnight, Nvidia became the first company in history to carry a $5 trillion market value, a milestone that reignited the artificial-intelligence trade and lit up the entire semiconductor complex. And on Wednesday afternoon, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting landed on the dovish side of expectations, easing the yield worry that the week’s tariff headlines had stirred. Futures are firmly higher this morning: S&P 500 futures are up about 0.45%, Nasdaq 100 futures lead with a 0.7% gain, and Dow futures are up 0.3%.

The Fed minutes did most of the heavy lifting for the broad market. They revealed a committee comfortable holding rates steady through the back half of 2026, with only a small minority still entertaining a hike and a majority judging that the labor market has cooled enough to keep policy patient. A handful of officials flagged the upside inflation risk from tariffs — a caveat that matters more after this week’s copper levy — but the net message was reassuring enough to pull the 10-year Treasury yield back toward 4.30% and hand the rally its fuel.

There is also a non-event worth noting. Today, July 9, was the original reciprocal-tariff deadline, but Monday’s letters superseded it with an August 1 date, so it passes without drama. That removes a source of anxiety for the session and lets the market lean into the two things it would rather trade — megacap AI leadership and a patient Fed — with the S&P 500’s June record of 7,620.90 suddenly back within reach.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Nvidia crosses the $5 trillion mark

The headline number belongs to Nvidia, which became the first public company to reach a $5 trillion market capitalization as its shares extended their advance in premarket trading. The milestone is more than a vanity metric: it reflects a market that has recommitted to the AI-infrastructure build-out as the defining growth story of the decade, and it dragged the entire chip complex higher, from Broadcom and AMD to Micron and the foundry names. It also sets a high bar for the late-July earnings season, when the megacaps will have to justify valuations that now embed years of flawless execution.

Dovish-leaning minutes ease the yield worry

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes were the macro turning point of the week. The record showed a committee that has grown comfortable with a prolonged hold, viewing the softening labor market as reason enough to stay patient rather than resume hikes. The 2026-hike camp, so prominent in the spring, reads as a distinct minority in the June discussion. The one hawkish thread — several members citing tariff-driven goods inflation as an upside risk — is precisely the tension that next week’s CPI will adjudicate, but for now the dovish tilt won out and yields fell.

The July 9 tariff date passes quietly

What might have been the week’s flashpoint has become a footnote. The original July 9 reciprocal-tariff deadline arrives today, but Monday’s letters already moved the effective date to August 1, so there is no cliff to fall off this morning. Trade negotiations continue in the background, and the market’s working assumption remains that the worst rates will be bargained down before they bite. That leaves the June CPI, not the calendar, as the next real test of the trade-inflation thesis.

Global Markets

Asian markets rallied on the Nvidia halo and the dovish Fed read. South Korea’s Kospi jumped about 1.2% as Samsung and SK Hynix surged, Taiwan’s Taiex climbed roughly 1.5% on the strength of the foundry giant at the center of the AI supply chain, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to near 71,730. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.3% to around 4,124 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained about 0.6% to near 23,540. The chip trade was the single clearest driver across the region.

Europe opened firmer, led by technology and semiconductor-equipment names. Germany’s DAX rose about 0.5% to near 25,220, France’s CAC 40 added 0.4% to around 8,555, Britain’s FTSE 100 firmed 0.2% to near 10,650, and the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced with ASML and the chip-supply chain in the lead. The softer dollar and lower U.S. yields provided a supportive backdrop for European risk assets.

Macro and Rates

The bond market took its cue from the minutes. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.30% and the 2-year to near 3.99%, steepening the 2s/10s spread to a positive 31 basis points as the front end priced a firmly patient Fed. Futures now put the odds of a hold at the July 29 meeting at roughly nine-in-ten, with the probability of a 2026 hike drifting toward the low teens after the June record showed how few officials still favor one. Today’s weekly jobless claims are the only scheduled data of note, a secondary input ahead of next week’s inflation print.

The dollar softened toward 99.2 on the ICE index, with the euro firming to about $1.140, and gold held a bid at $4,135 on the lower-yield, weaker-dollar mix. Crude firmed toward $68.80 for WTI as risk appetite improved. The cross-asset picture — falling yields, a softer dollar, firm gold, higher equities — is the clean risk-on signature the market had been missing during the tariff-dominated start to the week.

Corporate News

Earnings & Analyst Actions

• Nvidia (NVDA): The $5 trillion milestone is the market’s marquee story, with sell-side targets climbing again into late-July earnings and the AI-infrastructure narrative firmly back in the driver’s seat.
• Semiconductors: Broadcom, AMD, Micron and the equipment names rallied in sympathy, extending the chip complex’s leadership as the clearest expression of the renewed AI trade.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): Firm ahead of Friday’s results, which unofficially open the second-quarter earnings season and will frame the read on travel demand and the airlines.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Consolidating after this week’s copper-tariff surge, with some profit-taking as the initial squeeze cools.
• Megacaps: Broadly higher as the dovish minutes and the Nvidia halo lift the growth complex heading into the earnings gauntlet.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

The path of least resistance is higher. With yields easing, the tariff cliff deferred, and the AI trade re-energized by Nvidia’s milestone, the setup favors a run at the record, though thin summer liquidity and a cautious eye on next week’s CPI argue for a grind rather than a melt-up.

Base case: The S&P 500 trades a 7,545–7,590 range and closes higher, led by semiconductors and megacaps, with the record at 7,620.90 firmly back in view and the broadening cyclicals participating on the dovish read.

Bull case: A benign jobless-claims number and continued chip strength push the index to a close above 7,590 and a fresh assault on 7,620.90, with a breakout opening the path toward 7,700.

Bear case: A hot claims print or a fresh tariff-escalation headline stalls the advance, lifts yields, and pulls the S&P back toward 7,500 as the megacap leaders give back their premarket gains.

The stars have realigned for the bulls: Nvidia’s $5 trillion milestone and a dovish-leaning set of Fed minutes have put the record back within reach and restored the risk-on tone the tariff week had stolen — but with the index leaning heavily on a handful of megacaps and the June CPI just days away, this is a rally to ride with a hand near the exit, not one to chase with both feet.

Georgi Kuzmanov

Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.