Stocks Rise as Goldman’s Blowout and Nvidia’s China Reprieve Lead the Banks and Chips, With PPI on Deck

Georgi Kuzmanov Senior Equity Analyst & Founder Columbia MSFE · 13+ years equity research

The verdict week has turned constructive, and this morning it has two engines. Goldman Sachs led a second day of bank earnings with a blowout quarter, powered by record trading revenue and a reviving investment-banking pipeline, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America added beats of their own. And overnight, Nvidia said it expects to resume sales of its China-market artificial-intelligence accelerator after Washington signaled it would grant the necessary export licenses — a reprieve worth billions in annual revenue that lit up the entire semiconductor complex. Futures are higher: S&P 500 futures are up about 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures lead with a 0.5% gain, and Dow futures are up 0.35%.

The backdrop is a market that just cleared its biggest hurdle. Tuesday’s June CPI delivered a cooler-than-feared core reading of 0.2% on the month, a relief that — together with the opening round of bank beats — lifted the S&P 500 to a fresh record close of 7,645. The one caveat was in the detail: goods prices showed the first fingerprints of tariff pass-through, in categories like furniture, appliances and apparel, enough to keep Treasury yields from falling and to keep the inflation debate alive.

Which is why today’s data still matters. At 8:30 a.m. the June Producer Price Index lands — the wholesale-side read on inflation that often captures tariff-driven input costs more directly than the consumer index — and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book follows at 2:00 p.m. with anecdotal color on how businesses are absorbing the trade agenda. Strong earnings and a chip reprieve set a bullish tone; the PPI will decide whether the tariff-inflation story stays contained or starts to bite.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Goldman leads a second day of bank beats

The financial sector doubled down on Tuesday’s strong start. Goldman Sachs posted a blowout quarter, with record equities-trading revenue and a rebound in investment-banking fees driving a comfortable beat, and it struck an upbeat tone on the deal pipeline. Morgan Stanley beat on the strength of record wealth-management flows, and Bank of America topped estimates as its net interest income inflected higher. After JPMorgan and Citigroup on Tuesday, the message from the group is consistent: trading is strong, capital markets are reviving, credit is benign, and the steepening yield curve is finally flowing through to profits. It is exactly the kind of broad, fundamental strength that can hand leadership to financials.

Nvidia to resume China AI-chip sales

The chip complex got its own catalyst. Nvidia said it expects to restart shipments of its China-market AI accelerator after the U.S. administration indicated it would approve the required export licenses, reversing a restriction that had frozen a multibillion-dollar revenue stream. The stock jumped in premarket trading and dragged the semiconductor group with it, from AMD and Broadcom to the equipment makers, while ASML added to the mood with a strong bookings report. Coming just days after Nvidia became the first $5 trillion company, the reprieve reinforces the AI-infrastructure trade at the heart of this bull market.

PPI and the Beige Book: the inflation read continues

The macro calendar keeps the inflation question front and center. June PPI, due at 8:30 a.m., is expected to rise 0.2% on the month, and it carries extra weight after Tuesday’s CPI showed tariff fingerprints in goods: because the producer index sits earlier in the supply chain, it can reveal cost pressure that has not yet reached the consumer. The Fed’s Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. will add real-world texture on how firms are handling tariffs and pricing. Together they are the day’s swing factor beneath the earnings enthusiasm.

Global Markets

Asian markets rallied on the Nvidia news, with the chip supply chain leading. South Korea’s Kospi jumped about 1.0% as Samsung and SK Hynix climbed, Taiwan’s Taiex rose roughly 1.3% on the foundry giant at the center of the AI trade, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.5% to near 71,900. China’s Shanghai Composite firmed 0.4% to around 4,140 on the prospect of renewed chip access, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.8% to near 23,850. The chip reprieve was the single clearest driver across the region.

Europe opened firmer, helped by a strong earnings-season read-through to its own banks and by ASML’s bookings lifting the technology group. Germany’s DAX rose about 0.4% to near 25,230, France’s CAC 40 added 0.3% to around 8,520, Britain’s FTSE 100 firmed 0.3% to about 10,690, and the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced. Automakers steadied further as the EU and Washington continued to talk ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.

Macro and Rates

The bond market is steady and waiting on the 8:30 release. The 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.32% and the 2-year near 4.00%, leaving the 2s/10s spread at a positive 32 basis points — a touch steeper on the week and a continuing tailwind for the banks now reporting. Tuesday’s CPI kept yields from falling because of the goods-price detail, and today’s PPI is the next test of whether the tariff pass-through is accelerating. Futures still price better than a nine-in-ten chance of a hold at the July 29 meeting.

The dollar is steady near 99.3 on the ICE index, gold is flat at $4,145, and crude firmed toward $68.90 for WTI. Bitcoin extended its run toward $69,500 as Congress’s digital-asset legislation advanced, keeping the crypto complex bid. The cross-asset picture — higher equities, steady yields and dollar, firm risk appetite — is constructive, but it is a configuration that assumes the PPI cooperates.

Corporate News

Earnings & Analyst Actions

• Goldman Sachs (GS): Blowout quarter on record equities trading and a reviving investment-banking pipeline; the stock led the financials higher in premarket trading.
• Morgan Stanley (MS): Beat on record wealth-management flows, underscoring the strength of its fee-based franchise.
• Bank of America (BAC): Topped estimates as net interest income inflected higher, the payoff from the steepening curve.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Expects to resume China AI-chip sales after Washington signaled license approvals, reviving a multibillion-dollar revenue stream and lifting the chip complex.
• ASML (ASML): Reported strong bookings, reinforcing the AI-driven capital-spending cycle and lifting semiconductor-equipment names.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

The path of least resistance is higher, carried by the one-two of a bank-earnings blowout and a chip-sector reprieve, provided the 8:30 PPI does not spoil the mood. Expect financials and semiconductors to lead, and the record at 7,645 to give way to a fresh high if the producer print cooperates.

Base case: A PPI in line at +0.2% lets the S&P 500 trade a 7,640–7,690 range and close at a new record, with financials and chips leading and the broadening rally gaining a firmer footing.

Bull case: A cool PPI paired with the Goldman blowout and the Nvidia news pushes the index decisively through 7,660 and puts 7,700 in reach, with the rally’s leadership visibly widening.

Bear case: A hot core PPI of +0.4% or more, especially in goods, revives the tariff-inflation worry, lifts the 10-year toward 4.40%, and caps the advance, pulling the S&P back toward 7,600 despite the strong earnings.

Two genuine catalysts — Goldman’s blowout and Nvidia’s China reprieve — have the banks and chips leading the tape higher and the record within reach, which is exactly the broadening leadership a durable rally needs; but the session still pivots on the 8:30 PPI, and after Tuesday’s CPI flagged the first tariff fingerprints in goods, a hot producer print would be the clearer sign that the real inflation test is not this week but next month.

Georgi Kuzmanov

Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.