Stocks Hold Records After the Fed as Apple and Amazon Report Tonight and Q2 GDP Lands

Georgi Kuzmanov Senior Equity Analyst & Founder Columbia MSFE · 13+ years equity research

The biggest obstacle of the week cleared without incident. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at the 3.50%–3.75% target on Wednesday, and Chair Powell threaded the needle in his press conference — declining to commit to a September cut but doing nothing to take one off the table, describing policy as well positioned and the labor market as gradually cooling. Markets read it as dovish enough: the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record near 7,896, helped along by Microsoft’s post-earnings surge, and the VIX slipped below 14.

With the central bank behind it, the market turns to the second half of its megacap gauntlet. Apple and Amazon both report after Thursday’s close, and after Microsoft’s Azure blowout validated the AI-cloud thesis two nights ago, Amazon’s AWS growth rate is arguably the single most anticipated number left this week. Apple brings a different question — iPhone demand and the cost of tariffs — that has less to do with AI and more to do with the physical economy.

Before any of that, the morning delivers the week’s marquee macro print: the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m., expected to show the economy reaccelerating to about a 2.3% annualized pace from 1.8% in the first quarter, alongside weekly jobless claims. Futures are little changed near their record, digesting a friendly Fed and positioning for a data-and-earnings-heavy day.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

The Fed holds and keeps September alive

Wednesday’s decision was the hold everyone expected, so the market’s attention was entirely on tone — and Powell delivered a measured, market-friendly one. He characterized the policy rate as well positioned to respond in either direction, acknowledged that the labor market has continued to soften gradually, and flagged the newly agreed European tariffs as a factor the committee will watch for price effects without treating them as a reason to change course. He stopped short of endorsing a September cut, but the absence of any pushback was enough: futures markets nudged the probability of a September move up toward 65%, the two-year yield eased to 4.00%, and equities held their record. It was, in the market’s reading, a green light to keep the trade on.

Apple and Amazon close the megacap week tonight

The evening brings the last two of the four megacaps. For Amazon, the market wants the AWS growth rate, and the bar has just been raised: Microsoft showed accelerating Azure growth, and investors will expect Amazon’s cloud division to echo it — a confirmation that AI demand is lifting the entire cloud complex, not just one player. Retail margins and the holiday-quarter outlook matter too. For Apple, the story is different and more grounded: iPhone unit demand, services growth, and how much the tariff regime — even a bounded 15% on Europe — is adding to the cost base of a company that builds hardware across a global supply chain.

GDP headlines a busy macro morning

The advance reading of second-quarter GDP at 8:30 a.m. is the data highlight, expected near a 2.3% annualized pace — a reacceleration from the first quarter that would reinforce the soft-landing narrative without being hot enough to threaten the Fed’s patience. Weekly jobless claims accompany it, watched closely for any confirmation of the gradual labor-market cooling Powell described. A print in line with expectations would leave the September-cut story intact and let the market keep its focus on the earnings tonight.

Global Markets

Asian markets advanced, carried by Wall Street’s record and the dovish-enough Fed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 0.6% to near 75,090, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.7% to around 25,180, China’s Shanghai Composite firmed 0.4% to about 4,255, and South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex each gained close to a percent as the AI-supply chain extended its Microsoft-driven rally. A softer dollar following the Fed added a tailwind for the region.

Europe opened firmer as well. Germany’s DAX rose about 0.4% to near 26,290, France’s CAC 40 added 0.3% to around 8,815, Britain’s FTSE 100 firmed 0.3% to about 10,960, and the Euro Stoxx 50 gained modestly. With the trade deal and the Fed both resolved favorably, regional trade leaned on a steady stream of earnings and the read-across from a friendlier US rate outlook.

Macro and Rates

The bond market rallied gently after the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.34% and the 2-year to 4.00%, keeping the 2s/10s spread near a positive 34 basis points as the front end responded to a September cut moving back into view. This is the configuration the equity bulls want: a Fed that is done hiking, an easing path that is credible but not urgent, and a curve steepening for the right reasons. This morning’s GDP is the swing factor — an in-line-to-soft reading keeps it intact, while an unexpectedly hot number could nudge yields back up and complicate the September story.

Across other assets, the dollar softened to about 98.7 on the ICE index after the Fed, gold firmed to $4,148, and WTI crude pushed back above $70 to $70.10 ahead of Exxon and Chevron on Friday. Bitcoin held near $74,300, consolidating its record run. The cross-asset backdrop is as constructive as it has been all month: trade risk bounded, the Fed neutral-to-dovish, and the economy growing — leaving the earnings tonight as the last real variable of the week.

Corporate News

Earnings & Analyst Actions

• Apple (AAPL): Reports after the close; iPhone demand, services growth, and the tariff hit to its supply-chain cost base are the watch items.
• Amazon (AMZN): Also reports tonight; AWS growth is the headline number after Microsoft’s Azure beat, with retail margins a close second.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Held its post-earnings gains as analysts continued to raise targets on the Azure acceleration.
• Boeing (BA): Rose after Wednesday’s report showed a narrower loss and a steadier delivery cadence, a step forward in its long recovery.
• Mastercard (MA): Firmed premarket on a solid quarter, with resilient payment volumes reinforcing the healthy-consumer read.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

The most likely session is a steady, record-holding Thursday, with an in-line GDP print reinforcing the soft landing and the market coasting into the Apple and Amazon reports rather than taking a fresh directional stand. Expect Amazon and the cloud names to firm on AWS optimism, Apple to trade cautiously into its two-front report, and the broad index to hold near its record with volume thinning ahead of the after-close events.

Base case: The S&P 500 trades a 7,875–7,925 range and closes little changed near its record, with a roughly in-line GDP number and the market deferring to tonight’s earnings.

Bull case: A solid GDP print and pre-earnings enthusiasm for AWS carry the index above 7,930 to a fresh record, extending the post-Fed relief rally into the reports.

Bear case: A hot GDP figure that revives inflation worries, or pre-earnings de-risking on Apple’s tariff exposure, pulls the S&P back toward 7,850.

The two hardest tests of the week — the Fed and Microsoft — are already behind the market and both broke bullish, leaving stocks at a record with a September cut back in view and the soft-landing thesis intact into this morning’s GDP, but the week is not finished proving itself: Amazon’s AWS number tonight will decide whether Microsoft’s cloud beat was the whole group or just one name, and Apple — carrying a tariff bill and an unresolved AI story — is the single report most capable of complicating an otherwise clean narrative, so hold the winners into the close but treat tonight as the real verdict on whether this record is built to last through Friday’s inflation print.

Georgi Kuzmanov

Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.