S&P 500 Holds Record Highs as Berkshire’s Abel Era Begins — PLTR Earnings, Durable Goods on Tap

U.S. equity futures point modestly higher this Monday morning as Wall Street returns from a weekend dominated by Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting—the first under Greg Abel’s stewardship as CEO. The S&P 500 enters the session at 7,230.12, a fresh all-time closing record set Friday, with the index now up roughly 12% year-to-date on the back of the strongest April for equities since 2020.

The week ahead is loaded with catalysts: Palantir reports after today’s close as the bellwether AI infrastructure play, durable goods and factory orders data drop at 10:00 AM, and the entire week builds toward Friday’s April payrolls report. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on the Fed chair transition—Jerome Powell steps down May 15 with Kevin Warsh set to take the helm—adding a layer of policy uncertainty beneath the surface calm.

Volatility remains suppressed with the VIX at 16.89, but the technical picture is stretched. The S&P 500’s RSI sits at 71.44—officially overbought territory—while Nasdaq’s RSI has reached 74.79. The question this week: can earnings from PLTR, AMD, Disney, and Coinbase sustain the momentum, or does sticky inflation (core PCE at 3.2%) finally reassert gravitational pull?

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Berkshire’s Abel Era: Continuity With a Modern Edge

Saturday’s annual meeting in Omaha marked the formal beginning of Berkshire Hathaway under Greg Abel. The new CEO struck a tone of institutional continuity, reaffirming the decentralized operating model and patient capital allocation philosophy that defined the Buffett decades. The cash pile stands at a staggering $347.7 billion—dry powder that markets are interpreting as both a safety net and potential catalyst for a transformative acquisition.

The meeting’s most memorable moment came when Berkshire unveiled a live demonstration of AI-generated deepfake technology that successfully mimicked both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. The exercise was designed to highlight cybersecurity risks facing corporate America—a fitting segue to Buffett’s own comment that artificial intelligence is “scary” in its potential for misuse. For markets, the takeaway is that even the most old-school institution in American finance now recognizes AI as a systemic variable.

The Dollar Paradox: Strong and “Overvalued”

Despite an accelerating de-dollarization trend globally—with 67% of executives seeing reduced USD dominance within a decade—the greenback remains resilient. The broad dollar index (DTWEXBGS) stands at 118.73, up 0.4% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand amid the Iran/Hormuz standoff and a still-wide U.S. yield premium. Morningstar estimates the dollar is approximately 10% overvalued on a purchasing-power-parity basis, suggesting the currency is living on borrowed time if rate differentials narrow under the incoming Warsh Fed.

Iran Ceasefire Holds—Barely

The fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire remains intact over the weekend, though Houthi forces in Yemen conducted another drone test near commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Oil prices are modestly firmer overnight, with WTI trading above $102 as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium persists. Brent crude holds above $108. The supply overhang from elevated geopolitical risk continues to underpin energy prices, with U.S. gasoline at its highest seasonal level in four years—$1.12 per gallon above year-ago prices.

Global Markets

Asia-Pacific

Chinese markets are closed for the final day of the May Day/Labor Day holiday week and will reopen Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.4% to close at 42,180 as exporters benefited from yen weakness (USD/JPY trading near 157). Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.3% on resource stock strength, led by BHP and Rio Tinto as iron ore prices firmed. South Korea’s KOSPI edged up 0.2% with Samsung posting modest gains ahead of next week’s memory chip pricing data.

Europe

European bourses opened mixed. The STOXX Europe 600 is flat in early trading, with the DAX up 0.2% and the FTSE 100 slipping 0.1% as energy majors gave back Friday’s gains. Euro-area PMI services data for April came in at 52.8, above the flash estimate of 52.5, providing a modest tailwind for eurozone growth expectations. The ECB’s June rate cut remains fully priced at 94% probability.

Macro and Rates

The Treasury market enters the week in a holding pattern. The 10-year yield stands at 4.40% and the 2-year at 3.88%, maintaining the positive 2s/10s spread of 51 basis points that has characterized this economic cycle’s normalization phase. The yield curve’s positive slope is consistent with a soft-landing scenario, though the spread has narrowed from 60 bps in early April as rate-cut expectations have been repriced.

The Fed funds rate remains at the 3.50%–3.75% target range following April’s contentious 4-dissent hold. Markets are pricing just 14 bps of cuts by the June meeting (93% probability of hold) and 50 bps of total easing by year-end—a dramatic shift from January when five cuts were priced. Today’s FedSpeak from Williams (12:50 PM) could recalibrate near-term rate expectations.

Gold holds firm above $4,600 at $4,621 in early trading, supported by central bank buying and inflation hedging demand. The metal is up 18% year-to-date and continues to decouple from its traditional inverse relationship with real yields—a structural shift driven by sovereign diversification away from USD reserves.

WTI crude oil at $102.18 reflects the persistent Hormuz premium. Core supply fundamentals remain constructive with OPEC+ production discipline intact and U.S. shale growth moderating. The White House confirmed it will not release strategic petroleum reserves despite gasoline price pressures, preferring to keep the SPR buffer intact given Middle East uncertainties.

Corporate News

Powell-to-Warsh Transition: 11 Days

With Jerome Powell’s departure set for May 15, the incoming Kevin Warsh era is generating significant positioning activity in rates markets. Warsh is perceived as slightly more hawkish and considerably more communication-forward than Powell. The transition creates an unusual window of policy ambiguity—traders are uncertain whether Warsh will signal a philosophical break at his first press conference or opt for continuity messaging. Williams’ speech today at 12:50 PM may offer the last meaningful “Powell-era” guidance.

Citigroup Investor Day & IBM Think Conference

Citigroup holds its 2026 Investor Day today, where CEO Jane Fraser is expected to update medium-term return targets following the bank’s ongoing simplification strategy. Citi shares have underperformed the KBW Bank Index by 400 bps YTD. Separately, IBM’s Think conference kicks off this week with enterprise AI strategy updates—the company has positioned its watsonx platform as the enterprise alternative to hyperscaler AI offerings.

Anthropic Developer Event

Anthropic hosts a developer-focused event today, potentially unveiling new Claude model capabilities or enterprise deployment tools. The announcement comes as the AI arms race intensifies between Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta—and as Palantir prepares to report earnings that will serve as a litmus test for enterprise AI spending momentum.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The durable goods final revision is expected to confirm the preliminary +3.3% reading, which included a record $82.9 billion in core capital goods orders (ex-defense, ex-aircraft). This signals robust business investment despite the elevated rate environment—a key argument for the soft-landing camp. Factory orders are expected to rebound modestly from February’s −0.2% decline.

The AlphaEdge Prediction

Markets are poised for a relatively quiet session ahead of the heavy earnings and data calendar later this week. The Berkshire meeting offered no negative surprises, Asian markets are calm with China still on holiday, and durable goods are expected to confirm already-strong preliminary data. The setup favors a mild drift higher, capped by overbought conditions and position-squaring ahead of PLTR’s after-hours report.

Base Case (65% probability): S&P 500 trades in a narrow range of 7,215–7,275, with a slight positive bias into the close as PLTR anticipation lifts the AI complex. VIX drifts toward 16.5.

Bull Case (20% probability): Strong durable goods confirmation plus dovish Williams commentary propels S&P above 7,275 to test 7,300 for the first time. Berkshire-related enthusiasm carries blue-chip financials higher.

Bear Case (15% probability): Factory orders surprise to the downside, Williams strikes a hawkish tone on inflation persistence, and PLTR pre-earnings anxiety weighs on momentum names. S&P tests 7,180–7,200 support.