S&P 500 Rebounds 1% as Oil Eases Below $100, Nvidia GTC Unveils $1 Trillion Order Book, Meta Signs $27B Nebius Deal, Fed Decision Wednesday

The bottom line: Wall Street staged its most convincing bounce since the Iran war began. The S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,699.38, snapping a three-week losing streak, as oil prices finally reversed hard from their overnight highs. WTI crude plunged 5.3% to $93.50 after Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Wall Street Journal reported a coalition to escort commercial ships is imminent. Nvidia's GTC conference delivered the headline the market was waiting for: CEO Jensen Huang said he expects $1 trillion in orders for the company's Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems through 2027. And Meta quietly inked one of the largest AI infrastructure deals in history — $27 billion with neocloud firm Nebius. All 11 S&P sectors closed green. But volume was well below average, and the market gave back about half its gains after Trump said the coalition "isn't quite ready yet." This was a relief rally, not a conviction rally.

Closing Scoreboard

What Happened: Oil Reversal Powers the First Green Day in a Week

The session told its story in three acts. In the first act, oil prices opened sharply lower after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on CNBC and confirmed that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This was the first official confirmation that some oil traffic is flowing despite the war, and it immediately took the most extreme supply-disruption scenarios off the table. WTI had briefly topped $100 overnight; by mid-morning it was trading below $95.

The second act came around midday when the Wall Street Journal reported that the administration plans to announce a coalition of countries to escort commercial tankers through the Strait, citing officials. Stocks extended their gains on the report, with the Dow briefly up over 600 points (+1.3%) and the Nasdaq approaching +1.9%.

Then the third act: President Trump spoke to reporters and appeared to walk back the coalition's readiness, saying some countries are "less than enthusiastic" about participating. He encouraged other nations to get involved "quickly and with great enthusiasm," but acknowledged that "one or two" longtime U.S. allies may not participate. Stocks pulled back from their highs on his comments, with the S&P 500 giving back about 0.5% from its intraday peak. Oil also recovered some of its losses, though it still closed sharply lower on the day.

Separately, Iran denied reports that it is seeking a truce. Overnight, Bloomberg reported that Dubai's airport and an oil port in the UAE were damaged, extending the geographic scope of the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself.

The GTC Effect: Huang Drops $1 Trillion and Orbital Data Centers

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered exactly the keynote the market was hoping for. Speaking at the company's annual GPU Technology Conference in San Jose, Huang made two blockbuster announcements:

$1 trillion in orders: Huang said he expects Nvidia to receive $1 trillion in combined orders for its Blackwell and next-generation Vera Rubin chip systems through 2027. This figure contextualizes the AI infrastructure buildout in a way that forward-looking revenue estimates alone cannot. It suggests Nvidia's order pipeline is secured for at least two product generations, which is exactly the kind of visibility that growth investors want.

Vera Rubin Space-1: In a more futuristic announcement, Nvidia unveiled the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module — a computing platform designed for orbital data centers. "Space computing, the final frontier, has arrived," Huang said. The chips, engineered for size, weight, and power-constrained environments, will be used on missions led by Axiom Space, Starcloud, and Planet Labs. While this is early-stage, it positions Nvidia at the center of the nascent space computing market and reinforces the narrative that AI demand is expanding into entirely new domains.

Nvidia closed at $183.22, up 1.65%, on volume of 215 million shares — well above its average. The GTC conference continues through Thursday.

Meta-Nebius: A $27 Billion AI Infrastructure Bet

Meta signed one of the largest AI infrastructure deals in corporate history on Monday, agreeing to a $27 billion, five-year contract with Nebius Group, a Dutch "neocloud" company that builds and rents out AI-specific data center capacity. Under the deal, Nebius will supply up to $12 billion in dedicated capacity across multiple locations starting in 2027.

Nebius shares surged 13% on the news. Meta gained more than 2%, with investors viewing the deal as evidence that the company is serious about its AI spending plans while simultaneously responding to the Reuters report that it's planning to lay off 20% or more of its workforce. A Meta spokesperson called the layoff report "speculative" when asked by CNBC.

Mega-Cap Movers

Other notable movers: Peloton +4.5% after launching a new commercial gym bike and tread series. Nebius (NBIS) +13% on the Meta deal. Mara Holdings +2.5% and crypto-linked stocks rallied as Bitcoin climbed above $74,000. Gold miners (Newmont +2.1%, Barrick +2.3%) were higher even as spot gold softened.

Sector Breakdown: All 11 Green, Tech Leads

The most telling data point of the day: nine S&P 500 stocks hit all-time highs, and seven of them were utilities — Ventas, American Electric Power, Atmos Energy, CenterPoint Energy, Duke Energy, Consolidated Edison, and Alliant Energy. In a "normal" bull market, utilities hitting all-time highs wouldn't make headlines. In the middle of a war and an oil shock, it reveals the market's deep hunger for yield and safety. Meanwhile, three S&P stocks hit 52-week lows: Paramount Skydance (lowest since 2009), Campbell Soup (since 2003), and General Mills (since 2019). The divergence between defensives making new highs and consumer staples making new lows is unusual and worth watching.

Oil: The Bessent Effect

The biggest single driver of today's rally was Bessent's CNBC interview confirming that "the Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we've let that happen to supply the rest of the world." Iran currently exports about 1.5 million barrels per day, and confirmation that those exports are continuing — even in a war zone — materially reduces the worst-case supply disruption scenario.

Still, oil's retreat only went so far. Brent settled above $100 for the second consecutive session, and analysts are warning that prices could go much higher. Energy traders told CNBC they "wouldn't be surprised if oil climbs to $200 per barrel" if the war drags on and the Strait remains effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas, and tanker traffic through it has effectively ground to a halt since the conflict began.

The key question for oil is whether the Bessent policy — allowing Iranian tankers through while blocking commercial traffic — can hold. Iran is getting its oil out, but the rest of the Persian Gulf's producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait) remain largely cut off from their primary export route. That is not a stable equilibrium.

Economic Data: Surprisingly Strong Manufacturing and Production

The economic data was better than expected on the manufacturing front. Empire State Manufacturing came in at 7.1 versus the 4.0 consensus, and industrial production surged 0.7% month-over-month, far exceeding the 0.1% forecast. Both readings suggest that the real economy is holding up better than sentiment data would indicate, at least through mid-March.

The NAHB Housing Market Index, however, slipped to 36 from 42, its lowest reading since mid-2023 and a miss on the 37 forecast. Rising mortgage rates (driven by higher long-term yields on oil inflation fears) and elevated gas prices are weighing on builder confidence. Housing is the sector most directly affected by the oil-driven shift in rate expectations.

Corporate News

• Foxconn reported weaker profits than expected (Q4 profit $1.4B vs $1.9B expected), but sales rose 22% year-over-year. The miss was attributed to a large tax bill and rising energy costs, not demand softness. The company said AI server demand remains robust.
• Hua Hong Group (China) is preparing 7-nanometer chip production through its Huali Microelectronics unit in Shanghai, making it China's second player at that node after SMIC. The development could intensify Congressional scrutiny of chip export controls.
• PhonePe halted its India IPO plans until markets stabilize, joining a growing list of companies delaying public offerings due to the war-related volatility.
• BTIG upgraded Upstart Holdings to buy from neutral with a $43 price target (+63% upside), citing the company's bank charter application as a positive catalyst in the private credit downturn.
• Loop Capital cut Best Buy's target to $75 from $85, keeping a buy rating but warning that elevated gas prices could dampen consumer electronics spending.
• Dollar Tree reported this morning ahead of the open — results were mixed with transportation costs weighing on guidance.

Looking Ahead: Fed Wednesday, Micron Earnings, Lululemon Tuesday

Tuesday brings earnings from Lululemon, Docusign, and Oklo. Lululemon will offer a read on whether premium consumer spending is holding up amid rising gas prices. Oklo, the nuclear energy startup backed by Sam Altman, reports its first full quarter — the nuclear trade has been one of the few consensus winners in the war environment.

Wednesday is the main event: the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Jay Powell's press conference. A hold is fully priced in, but the updated dot plot and Powell's comments on oil-driven inflation risks will be the most closely watched moment of the week. Markets are currently pricing in only one rate cut for the remainder of 2026, down from two-to-three at the end of February.

Also Wednesday: Micron earnings. Wall Street expects 137% year-over-year revenue growth and a 452% adjusted EPS increase. Micron trades at a forward P/E of just under 12 despite a 323% rally over the past twelve months. A beat could further validate the AI hardware thesis. Tencent, General Mills, and Macy's also report Wednesday.

Thursday: ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan rate decisions. Alibaba, Accenture, FedEx, and Darden earnings. Friday: Triple witching options expiration.

The AlphaEdge Take

Today felt good. It didn't feel real.

That's not a criticism of the rally — it was driven by genuinely positive developments. Bessent confirming that Iranian oil tankers are getting through the Strait is a material reduction in tail risk. Nvidia's $1 trillion order pipeline is a real number with real forward visibility. The Meta-Nebius deal validates the scale of AI infrastructure demand. And the economic data — Empire State and industrial production both beating by wide margins — shows that the real economy hasn't buckled yet.

But the caveats are significant. Volume was below average on both exchanges. The market gave back roughly half its intraday gains on a single set of remarks from Trump, demonstrating how dependent this rally is on geopolitical headlines. Brent crude still settled above $100. Iran denied wanting a truce. And Dubai's airport was damaged — a reminder that the war's economic footprint extends well beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The most important data point today was the 7 utilities making all-time highs. In a normal bounce from a three-week losing streak, you'd expect cyclicals and growth stocks to lead. Instead, the biggest winners in the S&P 500 were companies that sell electricity — the most defensive, yield-oriented corner of the market. That's not the behavior of a market that believes the risk is over. That's the behavior of a market that is simultaneously buying the dip on tech/AI and building safe-haven positions for what might come next.

For tomorrow, we're watching two things: oil at the open (does Brent hold above $100 or break below it?) and Nvidia follow-through (the stock was up less than 2% on a day when the CEO said "$1 trillion" — that's either a setup for a breakout or confirmation that the market needs more than words). The Fed on Wednesday will tell us whether the war has changed the central bank's inflation calculus. If the dot plot shifts hawkish, the relief rally dies fast.

Bottom line: today was a necessary and healthy bounce, but it needs confirmation. A one-day relief rally on below-average volume doesn't change the fundamental picture — Brent is still above $100, the Strait is still closed, and the Pentagon still says this war could last six weeks. Stay disciplined. Stay hedged. And don't mistake a rally for an all-clear.