S&P 500 Snaps Three-Day Skid: ARM Explodes on AGI CPU Launch, Nvidia Beats All Metrics but Falls 3% After the Bell

The S&P 500 ended Wednesday up 0.94% at 7,423 — its first gain in four sessions — as a chip-led rally driven by ARM Holdings and Intel overshadowed a hawkish set of FOMC minutes released at 2 PM ET. The Russell 2000 led the major averages with a 2.09% surge, signalling broad-based participation beyond the mega-cap names. After the bell, Nvidia delivered a record-breaking quarter: $81.62 billion in revenue, $1.87 in adjusted EPS, and a Q2 guidance of $91 billion that exceeded the Street’s $87 billion consensus — yet the stock fell roughly 3% in extended trading as investors encountered mixed data-center compute metrics and the familiar “sell the news” pattern that has defined Nvidia’s last several earnings cycles.

ARM Holdings was the defining story of the regular session, surging 15% to close at $256.73 after the company announced a $2 billion demand pipeline for its newly launched Agentic AI (AGI) CPU — a direct play on the inference and agentic workloads that now dominate cloud spending. Intel added 6.3% as multiple Wall Street desks issued fresh upgrades citing a CPU renaissance from AI inference demand. Together the two names injected renewed conviction into the AI infrastructure broadening thesis just hours before Nvidia confirmed yet another record quarter.

The mood turned briefly cautious at 2 PM when the Fed released its April 28–29 FOMC meeting minutes. The 8-to-4 dissent vote — the most fractured since October 1992 — was already known, but the minutes made explicit that a majority of policymakers believe “some policy firming would likely become appropriate” if inflation runs persistently above 2%. Energy-driven inflation from Middle East tensions has pushed the Committee to upgrade its language from “somewhat elevated” to simply “elevated.” Yields ticked up briefly on the release before drifting back; the 10-year closed at 4.65%, modestly below Tuesday’s 16-month high of 4.67%.

Closing Scoreboard

What Happened

Wednesday’s session reversed the yield-driven malaise that dragged markets lower across three of the prior four days. Equities opened with moderate gains on the back of Tuesday’s positive pre-market beats from Toll Brothers and CAVA Group, but the rally broadened meaningfully around mid-morning as news of ARM Holdings’ Agentic AI CPU — and a reported $2 billion forward-demand pipeline — triggered fresh buying across the semiconductor complex. Intel, which had lagged the AI infrastructure trade for much of the year, finally joined the party as Wall Street analysts issued a cluster of upgrades citing the “CPU renaissance” narrative: agentic AI workloads are proving far more CPU-intensive than prior inference models, reopening a growth path that many thought was fully closed.

The FOMC minutes arrived at 2 PM ET and briefly rattled fixed income. Traders noted the explicit hawkish shift: the majority now sees firming as appropriate if inflation persists. Governor Miran’s lone dissent for a 25-basis-point cut sits in stark contrast to the three dissents from Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan — who wanted the Committee to remove its easing bias entirely. Oil prices above $100/bbl (WTI) are the proximate cause: Middle East tensions have produced a sustained energy shock that is working its way into CPI and PPI. The S&P dipped roughly 15 points on the release but recovered within 30 minutes, closing near session highs as Nvidia pre-earnings optimism provided a floor.

The breadth of Wednesday’s rally was its most constructive feature. The Russell 2000’s 2.09% gain dwarfed the large-cap indices, suggesting the AI bull market is no longer solely a story of six or seven mega-cap names. Advancers led decliners by approximately 3-to-1 on the NYSE. Financials and utilities — the two most rate-sensitive sectors — were the only notable laggards as the post-FOMC yield uptick pressured their margins. Energy stocks gained alongside oil’s still-elevated absolute level, even as crude pulled back from the day’s highs.

After the close, Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.62 billion — a 85% year-over-year increase and a $2.43 billion beat versus the $79.19 billion Street estimate. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.87 against a $1.77 consensus, and Q2 guidance of $91.0 billion (±2%) was the single largest upside guidance surprise Nvidia has delivered in at least three quarters. Despite those headline numbers, the stock fell approximately 3% in after-hours to around $217, as investors focused on mixed data-center compute metrics and the ingrained pattern of selling Nvidia on the quarter: the company has now beaten revenue by 3–4% for six consecutive quarters yet closed lower on four of its last five post-earnings sessions. The Q2 guide is the number that will ultimately determine next week’s trading; at $91 billion it confirms Nvidia’s two-year $1 trillion cumulative revenue projection is on track.

Mega-Cap and Key Movers

Top 3 Winners & Top 3 Losers

Top 3 Winners

ARM — Arm Holdings  +15.1%  close $256.73

ARM surged 15% in its largest single-session gain of 2026, driven by the formal launch of Arm’s Agentic AI (AGI) CPU — a direct-to-data-center silicon offering that has already attracted a $2 billion forward-demand pipeline for FY2027–FY2028. The move compounded momentum from the company’s Q4 FY2026 results reported earlier in May: revenue of $1.49 billion (+20% year-over-year), non-GAAP EPS of $0.60 (versus $0.58 consensus), and data-center royalty revenue that more than doubled year-over-year. Ahead of Nvidia’s print, multiple bulge-bracket desks raised ARM price targets to reflect the expanded total-addressable-market in AI-optimised compute, contributing to unusually heavy intraday volume approximately 3.2 times the 30-day average.

INTC — Intel  +6.3%  close $118.42

Intel gained 6.3% after a cluster of analyst upgrades from major firms cited an emerging “CPU renaissance” in enterprise AI. The thesis: agentic AI workloads are proving significantly more CPU-intensive than first-generation inference, reopening server CPU market-share growth that many had assumed was permanently capped. Intel’s Xeon portfolio is positioned to capture incremental workloads alongside Nvidia GPUs rather than competing with them. Analysts also flagged that Intel’s foundry commentary on the May 6 earnings call — which highlighted strengthening advanced-packaging demand — is better understood now that ARM has confirmed the AGI CPU roadmap. Volume ran approximately 2.8 times the 30-day average on the day.

NVDA — Nvidia  +2.3%  close $223.47 (fell ~3% after hours)

Nvidia added 2.3% during the regular session on pre-earnings optimism ahead of its Q1 FY2027 report. The stock then reported after the bell: revenue of $81.62 billion (beat by $2.43 billion), adjusted EPS of $1.87 (beat by $0.10), data-center revenue of $75.2 billion (beat), non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%, and Q2 guidance of $91.0 billion (±2%) — well above the $87.36 billion Street consensus. Despite the across-the-board beat, NVDA fell approximately 3% in after-hours to around $217 as analysts pointed to mixed data-center compute sub-metrics relative to the highest buy-side expectations, and the market repriced the routine “sell the news” dynamic that has persisted for six consecutive quarters.

Top 3 Losers

HAS — Hasbro  −7.5%  close $86.50

Hasbro fell sharply after reporting first-quarter 2026 results before the open that missed on revenue despite beating on earnings. Net revenues of $1.00 billion fell 6% short of the $1.064 billion consensus as Consumer Products (toys and games) delivered flat revenue year-over-year with licensing income declining. Adjusted EPS of $1.47 exceeded the $1.26 estimate — driven entirely by Wizards of the Coast, which generated $582 million in revenue (+26%) at a 51% operating margin. The market interpreted the result as evidence that Hasbro’s non-Wizards business continues to struggle with tariff-related cost pressure and softening physical toy demand. Management reiterated full-year guidance, but the guidance itself implies a back-half acceleration that investors viewed with scepticism.

BILI — Bilibili  −7.3%  close $14.80

Bilibili declined 7.3% in a sector-driven move rooted in renewed U.S.–China regulatory and geopolitical tension. There was no single idiosyncratic catalyst; rather, the stock reacted to broader news flow around potential restrictions on Chinese internet platforms operating in the United States, as well as concerns that Chinese consumer discretionary spending remains under pressure despite recent stimulus measures. BILI has been trading below its 200-day moving average for most of 2026 and continues to attract short interest from investors sceptical of its path to sustained profitability. The session’s weakness was amplified by thin liquidity in the ADR structure during periods of elevated macro volatility.

NTNX — Nutanix  −6.4%  close $43.13

Nutanix fell 6.4% in a technical and pre-earnings move ahead of its Q3 FY2026 results scheduled for May 27. The stock has been trading well below its 52-week high of $83.36 and broke through near-term support levels on Wednesday as broader cloud infrastructure names (outside of pure-play AI) experienced sector rotation toward the higher-growth ARM/Intel AI infrastructure story. No new fundamental developments were announced; the decline reflects investor preference for direct AI-infrastructure exposure over broader hybrid-cloud platforms in a session that rewarded clear AI conviction plays. Nutanix’s AMD partnership for agentic AI infrastructure remains a potential re-rating catalyst pending next week’s print.

Sector Breakdown

The sector picture tells a nuanced story. Technology was a modest laggard despite ARM and Intel’s massive gains, because the XLK weighting is dominated by Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia — the latter of which was +2.3% but not enough to offset Apple’s flat-to-marginally-positive performance and Microsoft’s −1.4% decline. Financials bore the brunt of the FOMC hawkish minutes, with higher-for-longer rate expectations compressing net-interest-margin expansion assumptions. Industrials led all sectors as the broadening economy narrative — supported by Tuesday’s pending home sales data and a solid labour market — attracted rotational flows away from crowded technology positions.

Global Markets

Asian markets closed in positive territory ahead of Nvidia’s print, with the Nikkei 225 rising 1.23% to 59,804 as Japanese semiconductor equipment makers tracked the AI infrastructure optimism. European equities also advanced: Germany’s DAX gained 1.38% to 24,737 and the FTSE 100 rose 0.99% to 10,432, with both indices helped by a retreat in oil prices from their Iran-crisis peaks. The MSCI Europe index has recovered much of its May sell-off, though European banks remain under pressure from sovereign-yield volatility linked to the ECB’s next move.

Fixed Income and Commodities

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.65%, edging down from Tuesday’s 16-month high of 4.67%. The intraday spike to 4.68% on the FOMC minutes release proved short-lived as traders judged the hawkish language to be largely pre-announced by the known 8-4 dissent. The 2-year yield settled at 4.10%, keeping the 2s/10s curve in positive territory at approximately 55 basis points — a structural positive for banks in theory, though the level is still too flat to dramatically expand lending margins.

Crude oil pulled back on Wednesday, with WTI falling 2.3% to $100.20 and Brent retreating 2.0% to $109.80. Reports of back-channel discussions between Washington and Tehran on potential confidence-building measures drove the relief trade, though no formal negotiations have been announced. Gold edged up 0.4% to $3,318 per ounce as investors balanced the risk-on mood in equities against the hawkish Fed backdrop. Bitcoin gained 1.4% to $80,240, continuing its gradual recovery from May’s yield-driven correction. The dollar index (DXY) added 0.22% to 99.42 as the hawkish FOMC minutes added marginal demand for dollars, keeping EUR/USD under pressure at 1.0885.

Corporate News

Analyst Actions

Beyond the ARM and Intel upgrades, Barclays raised its price target on Alphabet to $220 from $200, citing strong cloud and AI-search monetisation in the second quarter. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Broadcom with an Overweight rating and a $230 price target, arguing the company is best positioned to benefit from custom AI accelerator demand from hyperscalers seeking alternatives to Nvidia’s dominance. Goldman Sachs trimmed its Microsoft price target to $445 from $460, noting that the Azure-OpenAI integration capex cycle will weigh on near-term free cash flow despite strong enterprise AI adoption.

Hasbro Q1 2026

Hasbro reported before the open: Q1 net revenues of $1.00 billion missed the $1.064 billion consensus by 6%, driven by flat Consumer Products revenue as toy volumes recovered but licensing income declined. Wizards of the Coast was the bright spot, contributing $582 million in revenue at a 51% operating margin. Management reiterated full-year guidance for +3–5% revenue growth in constant currency and adjusted EBITDA of $1.40–1.45 billion, but the market clearly priced in execution risk given the first-quarter miss, sending the stock down 7.5%.

Economic Data

The dominant macro event of the session was the 2 PM ET release of the FOMC’s April 28–29 meeting minutes. The key addition was explicit language signalling that a majority of Committee members view rate increases as likely “appropriate” if inflation — now characterised as “elevated” rather than “somewhat elevated” — persists above the 2% target. The 8-4 dissent breakdown was already public: Governor Miran voted for a 25-basis-point cut, while Presidents Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Logan (Dallas) dissented in favour of removing the easing bias from the statement. The minutes clarified that Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan each cited broad-based inflation pressures, resilient growth, and geopolitically elevated energy prices as reasons to hold a more restrictive posture.

MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications for the week ending May 15 showed a modest decline of 1.2%, with refinancing activity holding but purchase applications retreating as the 30-year mortgage rate remains above 7.2%, linked to the broader yield-level reset. No other major U.S. economic data was scheduled for Wednesday.

After-Hours Movers

Nvidia was the only marquee after-hours report. The Q1 FY2027 headline numbers were strong across every line: revenue of $81.62 billion (+85% year-over-year), adjusted EPS of $1.87, data-center revenue of $75.2 billion at a non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%, and Q2 guidance of $91.0 billion (±2%). The Q2 guide is the single most important figure: at $91 billion it is $3.64 billion above the Street’s $87.36 billion consensus and sets a full-year trajectory that implies Nvidia’s two-year $1 trillion cumulative revenue projection is on track. Yet NVDA fell approximately 3% to around $217 in after-hours as analysts noted that data-center compute revenue — a sub-category watched closely by sophisticated investors — came in slightly below the highest buy-side estimates. The conference call, scheduled for 5 PM ET, will be the key forum for CEO Jensen Huang to address the networking-versus-compute revenue mix and the Blackwell Ultra supply ramp for the second half of FY2027.

The AlphaEdge Take

Wednesday delivered everything bullish investors wanted from the regular session: a broad-based rally led by genuine fundamental catalysts, small-cap participation, oil retreating from crisis highs, and Nvidia blowing past consensus on every headline metric. The ARM AGI CPU launch is the most structurally significant development of the week — it validates the thesis that AI infrastructure spending is widening beyond GPU procurement into system-level silicon, and positions ARM as a direct beneficiary of the agentic AI capex cycle for years rather than quarters.

The FOMC minutes deserve more credit than the 30-minute market hiccup suggests. Three hawkish dissenters is not a curiosity; it is the Fed communicating that rate hikes are genuinely on the table if energy prices sustain their current level. With WTI at $100 and Middle East tension unresolved, the probability of a hike is not negligible. The market seems to be treating this as a slow-burn tail risk rather than an immediate threat, which is probably right in the near term but creates a fragility: a further spike in crude oil or a hot CPI print could rerate the Fed-funds curve quickly.

The Nvidia after-hours decline is the textbook pattern — beat everything, guide up, stock falls — and has now played out four of five times. The $91 billion Q2 guide is the most important forward signal in this print: it is strong enough to keep the AI capex supercycle narrative intact and suggests the Blackwell Ultra ramp is proceeding on schedule. Thursday’s open will tell investors whether this is a one-night dip or the beginning of a broader Nvidia de-rating. AlphaEdge’s base case is that NVDA finds support in the $215–$220 range as the conference call details Blackwell supply and China revenue clarity.

The bull market is broadening — Wednesday’s Russell 2000 leadership and ARM’s breakout are constructive signals that confirm the AI infrastructure trade is not exhausted. The risk that caps the upside is the same one it has been all month: 10-year yields above 4.70% and oil above $105 would constitute a simultaneous growth-and-inflation shock that the equity market is not fully priced for. Keep the 10-year below 4.70% and NVDA above $215 on Thursday’s open, and the S&P 500 has a credible path toward 7,500 before the May 27 Memorial Day weekend. Lose those levels, and the post-FOMC hawkish repricing picks up where Tuesday left off.