Intel Surges 22% as Foundry Revival Validates — SK Hynix Posts Record, Chip Rally Hits Day 18, Trump Extends Ceasefire
Intel is the story this Friday morning. Shares are rocketing 22% higher in premarket trading after the chipmaker delivered a stunning first-quarter earnings beat that validates CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s foundry-first transformation strategy. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.18 versus Street consensus of just $0.01, while revenue of $13.6 billion topped the $12.67 billion expected — with the Data Center & AI segment surging 22% year-over-year and Intel Foundry Services jumping 16%. The Terafab partnership with Tesla and SpaceX is now confirmed as a live revenue channel, and HSBC’s pre-earnings upgrade to Buy with a $95 price target looks prescient.
Across the Pacific, South Korea’s SK Hynix reinforced the semiconductor supercycle narrative with a record-smashing quarter: $25.4 billion in operating profit (a fivefold jump) and revenue of $35.5 billion that nearly tripled year-over-year, driven by insatiable demand for high-bandwidth memory chips powering AI data centers. HBM supply, management warned, will remain constrained for at least three more years. Meanwhile, China’s DeepSeek unveiled its V4 model built for Huawei’s Ascend chips — a landmark move signaling Beijing’s push toward AI hardware independence from Nvidia.
Geopolitically, President Trump announced a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, easing one layer of Middle Eastern tension even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and the U.S. maintains its blockade of Iranian ports. S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly higher at 7,145 (+0.5%), though the Dow lags with futures down roughly 150 points as the rotation away from yesterday’s software losers and into hardware names continues.
Pre-Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Futures | 7,145 | +0.52% |
| Dow Futures | 49,322 | −0.20% |
| Nasdaq 100 Futures | 27,097 | +0.60% |
| VIX | ~19.5 | Roughly flat |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.30% | Unchanged |
| Gold (GC=F) | $4,701 | −0.1% |
| WTI Crude (CL=F) | $97.29 | +0.4% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1695 | +0.1% |
| Bitcoin | $77,831 | −0.2% |
Overnight Developments
Intel Q1: The Foundry Bet Pays Off
Intel’s first-quarter results represent the clearest evidence yet that Lip-Bu Tan’s turnaround is gaining traction. Total revenue rose 7% year-over-year to $13.6 billion, but the real story lies in the segment breakdown: the Data Center & AI division posted $5.1 billion in revenue (+22% YoY), while Intel Products overall hit $12.8 billion (+9%). Intel Foundry Services generated $5.4 billion (+16%), confirming that the company’s bet on becoming a contract manufacturer for external customers is bearing fruit.
Gross margins improved to 39.4% from 36.9% a year ago. The headline net loss of $3.7 billion (versus $800 million in Q1 2025) is entirely attributable to $4.07 billion in restructuring and impairment charges — the cost of the ongoing transformation. On a non-GAAP basis, EPS of $0.18 obliterated the $0.01 consensus, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of revenue beating expectations.
INTC shares are trading at $81.85 premarket, up 22.6% from yesterday’s close of $66.78. HSBC upgraded the stock to Buy with a $95 price target on April 21 — even before these results — implying roughly 16% further upside from this morning’s premarket level. The semiconductor index’s winning streak, which hit 17 consecutive days yesterday, is now extending to day 18.
SK Hynix: Record Quarter Confirms AI Memory Supercycle
South Korea’s SK Hynix reported staggering first-quarter results: operating profit of $25.4 billion (a fivefold increase from the year-ago period) on revenue of $35.5 billion that nearly tripled. The driver is high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are critical for training and running large AI models. Management explicitly warned that HBM demand is expected to outstrip supply for at least three years — a statement that should keep the AI infrastructure trade alive well into 2027 and beyond.
DeepSeek V4 Launches on Huawei Chips
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek released a preview of its V4 large language model, notable not for its benchmark scores but for its hardware foundation: the model is built and optimized for Huawei’s Ascend AI accelerators, deliberately moving away from the Nvidia GPUs that have dominated global AI training. This is a strategic signal that Beijing’s domestic chip ecosystem is maturing enough to support frontier model development — a headwind for Nvidia’s near-monopoly narrative and a tailwind for Chinese self-sufficiency advocates.
Trump Extends Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire
President Trump announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, removing one source of escalation risk in the Middle East. However, the broader Iran confrontation continues: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following Iran’s blockade, and the U.S. maintains its own blockade of Iranian ports. The IEA has warned that global LNG supplies are likely to remain strained through the end of 2027. Oil prices are roughly flat this morning as the ceasefire extension offsets ongoing supply concerns.
Global Markets
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 59,716 | +0.97% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25,978 | +0.24% |
| Shanghai Composite | 4,080 | −0.33% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,859 | −0.60% |
| FTSE 100 (London) | 10,381 | −0.73% |
| DAX (Frankfurt) | 24,077 | −0.33% |
| Stoxx 600 | 608.91 | −0.4% |
Asia traded with a bifurcated tone. Japan led the region higher as Tokyo chip stocks surged on the Intel and SK Hynix catalysts, pushing the Nikkei above 59,700. Hong Kong eked out modest gains, while the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.33% amid lingering uncertainty around the DeepSeek V4 model’s implications for the domestic technology ecosystem. The MSCI Emerging Markets index has now outperformed the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points year-to-date (up 16% versus the S&P’s roughly 3%).
Europe opened in the red and has stayed there. The FTSE 100 leads declines at −0.73%, weighed down by energy and mining stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 is off 0.60% as the continent struggles to absorb the ongoing oil supply shock from the Hormuz closure. European equities are pricing in more economic damage from elevated energy costs than their U.S. counterparts, which have stronger domestic production as a buffer.
Macro and Rates
Treasury yields are stable this morning after yesterday’s modest moves. The 10-year sits at 4.30% and the 2-year at 3.79%, maintaining the +51 basis point positive slope of the yield curve. The 2s/10s spread has been steadily positive since late March, reflecting the market’s belief that the Fed is done hiking but also that term premium needs to compensate for fiscal uncertainty and energy-driven inflation risks.
The dollar index (DXY) remains elevated around 118 on the broad trade-weighted measure, supported by capital flows into U.S. assets and the oil supply differential. EUR/USD trades at 1.1695, roughly flat on the session. Gold is quiet at $4,701, consolidating after its historic run above $4,700 this week. WTI crude holds near $97.29, with the ceasefire extension providing a marginal offset to the structural supply deficit from the Hormuz closure.
Corporate News
Today’s Earnings Spotlight
- Procter & Gamble (PG) — Reports before the bell. Consensus expects EPS of $1.56 on revenue of $20.5 billion. A consumer staples bellwether that will signal whether defensive positioning is warranted. PG is also ex-dividend today.
- SLB (Schlumberger) — Reports before the bell. EPS estimate $0.52, revenue $8.7 billion. The oil services giant’s commentary on E&P capex trends will be critical context for the energy sector amid Hormuz-driven price spikes.
- HCA Healthcare — EPS estimate $7.15, revenue $19.1 billion. The largest for-profit hospital operator offers a read on healthcare utilization trends and pricing power.
- Charter Communications (CHTR) — EPS estimate $10.24, revenue $13.5 billion. Cable and broadband subscriber trends remain under pressure from fixed wireless competition.
After-Hours Recap from April 23
Beyond Intel’s blockbuster, yesterday’s after-hours session saw continued fallout from the software selloff: ServiceNow finished down 17.7% on tepid guidance, IBM dropped 8.3%, and Lululemon lost 13.3% after issuing below-consensus forecasts. On the winning side, Texas Instruments surged 19.4% during the regular session on its own semiconductor earnings beat, Vertiv gained 5.4%, and GE Vernova added 1.9%. The most dramatic loser was Avis Budget (CAR), which cratered 48.4% on a massive fleet depreciation charge.
Premarket Movers
| Ticker | Premarket | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | $81.85 | +22.6% | Q1 beat, Terafab, HSBC upgrade to $95 |
| MSFT | $419.24 | +0.8% | Modest recovery from −4% session |
| TSLA | $376.28 | +0.7% | Terafab partner; Intel foundry synergy |
| GOOGL | $339.32 | +0.1% | Reports Apr 29; holding steady |
| NVDA | $199.85 | +0.1% | DGX Rubin uses Intel Xeon; chip rally |
| AAPL | $271.74 | −0.6% | Modest profit-taking; reports May 1 |
| SPY | $708.92 | Flat | S&P futures +0.5% but broad caution |
Economic Calendar — Friday, April 24
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders (Mar) | +0.8% | −1.3% |
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods ex-Transport (Mar) | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| 10:00 AM | U. of Michigan Sentiment (Apr final) | 51.0 | 50.8 (prelim) |
| 10:00 AM | New Home Sales (Mar) | 680K | 676K |
Durable goods orders are expected to rebound after February’s −1.3% decline, with the March reading forecast at +0.8%. This data point will be watched for signals on business investment amid the semiconductor capex boom and energy sector uncertainty. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading for April is expected at 51.0, barely above the preliminary 50.8 — still deeply depressed territory that reflects persistent inflation anxiety and geopolitical unease among consumers.
The AlphaEdge Prediction
Today’s session sets up as a tale of two markets. Intel’s premarket explosion will lift the semiconductor complex and provide a halo effect for Nasdaq futures, but the Dow’s pre-bell decline suggests the rotation out of yesterday’s losers (software, consumer discretionary) has further to run. PG’s before-bell report is the swing factor for the Dow: a beat could stabilize the index, while a miss would deepen the defensive-to-cyclical rotation narrative.
The macro backdrop is balanced. The ceasefire extension is mildly positive, oil prices are stable, and yields are flat — none of which presents a headwind. But Europe’s weakness and the Michigan sentiment reading (if it underperforms the already-dire 51.0 consensus) could cap upside into the close. The chip rally being the most overextended since 2000 introduces fragility: any negative catalyst could trigger a violent unwind of momentum positioning in semiconductor names.
Georgi Kuzmanov
Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.