Futures Extend Rally as Q2 Opens: Nikkei Surges 5%, Oil Drops Below $100, Gold Rebounds, NASA Moon Launch, Apple Turns 50

Georgi Kuzmanov Senior Equity Analyst & Founder

Wall Street is set to extend Monday’s stunning rally as the second quarter opens with global markets surging across the board. S&P 500 futures are up 0.71% to 6,617.50, Dow futures are adding 321 points (+0.69%) to 46,903, and Nasdaq futures are leading at +0.94% to 24,139 — building on yesterday’s spectacular session that saw the Dow surge 1,125 points and the S&P 500 post its best day since May. The rally has gone truly global: Japan’s Nikkei 225 exploded 5.24% higher — its biggest one-day gain since August 2024 — while European indexes are rallying 2–3% in early trading. The Iran peace narrative that ignited Monday’s buying frenzy is gaining momentum, with traders rapidly unwinding war-era hedges as President Trump signals willingness to end the conflict.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Asia Explodes Higher

The overnight session was extraordinary. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 5.24% — adding 2,676 points to 53,739.68 — in its best session since the post-BOJ panic reversal in August 2024. The rally was driven by a combination of the Iran peace narrative, yen weakness, and massive foreign buying as global funds rotated back into risk assets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 2.04% to 25,294. Shanghai’s SSE Composite added 1.46% to 3,948.55. India’s SENSEX rose 1.65% to 73,134, and the Nifty 50 gained 1.56% to 22,679. The breadth of the global rally underscores how deeply the Iran war premium had been embedded in asset prices — and how aggressively markets are pricing in a resolution.

Europe Extends the Buying Frenzy

European markets are participating fully in the rally despite the Stoxx 600 having posted its worst month since 2022 in March, losing 6.5%. The DAX is surging 2.36% to 23,215. The FTSE 100 is up 2.00% at 10,380, recovering from a brutal March. The CAC 40 is gaining 1.94% to 7,968. Spain’s IBEX 35 is the outperformer at +3.08% to 17,575. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 2.45% to 5,706. This comes despite eurozone inflation data showing consumer prices rose 2.5% year-over-year in March — the fastest pace since January 2025, driven entirely by energy costs. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, actually slowed to 2.3% from 2.4%, reinforcing the narrative that the inflationary impulse is supply-driven and likely to reverse if the Iran conflict de-escalates.

Oil Drops Below $100 as Iran Peace Narrative Builds

Crude oil is extending its retreat from the Iran war highs. WTI dropped below $100 to $100.06, down 1.30%. Brent is around $103.64, down roughly 3.5% from recent peaks. This is a continuation of Monday’s sharp pullback after the WSJ reported that Trump is willing to end the military campaign even without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are rapidly unwinding Fed rate hike bets that spiked during the war. However, structural supply constraints remain firmly in place: Hormuz is still effectively closed, gasoline has topped $4 per gallon nationally for the first time since 2022, and JPMorgan’s earlier warning that the oil shortage is “rolling westward much like COVID” remains relevant. Any breakdown in negotiations would send crude right back to its highs.

Gold Rebounds Sharply After Worst Month Since 2008

Gold futures are surging 1.86% to $4,765.60, continuing a sharp rebound after falling 11% in March — its worst month since 2008. The selloff was driven by margin calls and forced liquidation as equity market losses triggered cross-asset deleveraging. Now, with geopolitical risk still elevated but equities rallying, gold is finding support from the combination of still-high uncertainty, falling Treasury yields, and central bank demand. Goldman Sachs’s $5,400 year-end target remains in place.

Macro and Rates

Treasury yields are drifting lower. The 10-year is at approximately 4.31%, down about 3 basis points, continuing its decline from the 4.46% peak hit during the March panic. The 2-year sits at 3.82%, down 6 basis points, reflecting the unwinding of rate hike expectations. The 2s/10s spread has widened to 53 basis points, a sign that bond markets are pricing in weaker growth rather than tighter policy. The March 30 data from the Treasury Department showed the 10-year at 4.35% and the 2-year at 3.82%.

The JOLTS report released Monday showed U.S. job openings fell to a six-year low and hiring hit its slowest pace since COVID — a clear sign the labor market is cooling. Wall Street brokerages are still projecting two Fed rate cuts for 2026, despite the oil-driven inflation scare. Bond traders have been ditching inflation bets as the oil surge threatens growth more than it threatens permanently higher prices — the classic stagflation trade unwinding.

Corporate News

M&A Boom: Q1 2026 Was the Best Ever for Global Deals

Global M&A volume hit $1.3 trillion in Q1 2026 — the best first quarter on record. The flurry of deals continues unabated:

• McCormick acquires Unilever food business ($45B): The spice giant behind Old Bay, French’s, and Frank’s RedHot agreed to buy Unilever’s food division in a cash-and-stock deal. Hellmann’s and Knorr will become part of McCormick’s portfolio. The deal reflects the ongoing restructuring of packaged food companies.
• Eli Lilly acquires Centessa Pharmaceuticals ($7.8B): The pharma giant is expanding into sleep-focused biotech.
• Biogen acquires Apellis Pharmaceuticals ($5.6B at 135% premium): Apellis surged 135% on the news, making it yesterday’s top gainer on the entire market.
• Nvidia invested $2B in Marvell Technology: A strategic bet on the chip partner.
• OpenAI raised $122B at an $852B valuation in a record round co-led by SoftBank, with Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank committing a combined $110B.
• CoreWeave raised $8.5B in the largest chip-backed debt deal ever; shares surged 12% on Monday.

Other Corporate Highlights

• Nike beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates despite economic headwinds, though China remains a challenge. Shares gained 3.08% on Monday.
• Allbirds agreed to sell all assets for $39M to American Exchange Group (owner of Ed Hardy). The stock saw wild after-hours swings. The company had a $4B valuation at its 2021 IPO.
• Oracle began layoffs of thousands as it redirects spending toward AI data centers.
• Snap surged 14.6% after activist hedge fund Irenic built a 2.5% stake.
• Apple turns 50 today. Warren Buffett admitted he sold his stake too early. Market cap: $3.7 trillion. Active devices: 2.5 billion.
• SCOTUS ruled against Colorado’s conversion therapy ban in an 8–1 decision, raising free-speech concerns with implications for 20+ state laws.
• NASA launches Artemis II today — the first human mission to circle the moon since 1972. Four astronauts, including the first woman and person of color to leave low Earth orbit, will orbit the moon in a 10-day trip using Boeing’s SLS rocket and Lockheed Martin’s Orion capsule.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar — April 1

ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM is the morning’s key data event. Consensus is 49.5, which would mark a return to contraction territory after last month’s 50.3 reading. A hot reading above 50 would reinforce the growth-resilient narrative and support the rally. A sharp miss below 48 could trigger profit-taking as it would signal the oil shock is hitting industrial activity. The prices-paid sub-index will be closely watched for any energy-driven inflation surge.

AlphaEdge Prediction

The setup is about as bullish as it has been in weeks. Global markets are surging, oil is retreating, yields are falling, the VIX has collapsed from 30 to 24, and the peace narrative has momentum. Flows from the quarter-end rebalancing are done, and fresh Q2 allocations should provide a tailwind. ISM Manufacturing at 10 AM is the potential disruptor.

Base case (55% probability): The S&P 500 opens +0.5–0.8%, consolidates around the ISM number, and finishes in the range of 6,560–6,620. That would put it up 0.5–1.4% on the day and effectively erase two weeks of losses in two sessions.

Bull case (25% probability): ISM comes in above 50, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative while oil continues to slide. S&P pushes above 6,650, approaching the March 25 highs. Tech leads with Nasdaq up 1.5%+.

Bear case (20% probability): ISM craters below 48, signaling the oil shock is hitting the real economy. Profit-taking kicks in after two monster sessions. The S&P gives back yesterday’s gains and closes in the 6,450–6,500 range.

Our predicted close: S&P 500 at 6,585, up approximately 0.9%. The momentum is real, but two-day rallies of this magnitude typically see some consolidation on day two. Stay positioned for upside but keep stops tight — the April 6 deadline is five days away and remains the dominant risk.

Georgi Kuzmanov

Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.