Fed Decision Day Arrives as Samsung’s Trillion-Dollar Rally Lifts KOSPI Past 7,000

U.S. equity futures are treading water this Thursday morning as Wall Street braces for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this afternoon—the most consequential macro event of the week. With markets pricing virtually no chance of a cut today, the focus falls squarely on Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET and any shift in forward guidance language that might hint at a summer pivot.

Overnight, Asia delivered fireworks. South Korea’s KOSPI index blasted through the 7,000 level for the first time in history, surging 6.5% to close at 7,384.56 as Samsung Electronics entered the trillion-dollar market cap club on a 14% single-day rally. The AI semiconductor supercycle continues to rewrite records across the Pacific. Meanwhile, Disney shares are indicated up 4-5% in premarket after Wednesday’s after-hours earnings beat, and a Bloomberg report that Apple is in early talks with Intel and Samsung for chip supply diversification sent Intel futures sharply higher.

The broader setup is constructive: Wednesday’s session delivered a fifth consecutive gain for the S&P 500, oil continues its retreat below $100 on intensifying U.S.-Iran deal speculation, and the VIX remains comfortably below 16. But the Fed hangs over everything today—expect compressed ranges until 2:00 PM.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Samsung Enters the Trillion-Dollar Club

The headline out of Asia is unmistakable: Samsung Electronics’ Seoul-listed shares rocketed 14% on Wednesday, propelling the company’s market capitalization past $1 trillion and making it only the second Asian company—after Taiwan Semiconductor—to reach that milestone. The catalyst was Samsung’s quarterly earnings report, which showed profits leaping 49-fold year-over-year with 94% of total earnings now coming from its memory and AI chip divisions.

The rally electrified the entire Korean market. SK Hynix, another major Nvidia supplier, surged roughly 11%. The KOSPI index touched an intraday record of 7,426.60 before settling at 7,384.56—a 6.5% daily gain that extends the index’s YTD advance to approximately 71%. “If the demand for AI chips continues at this level, KOSPI could reach 10,000 points by the end of this year,” Seo Sang-young at Mirae Asset Securities told Reuters.

Apple Explores Intel and Samsung as Chip Suppliers

Bloomberg reported that Apple has held early-stage discussions about using Intel and Samsung as suppliers for the main processors in its devices—a geopolitical and supply-chain hedge against its lead fabricator, TSMC in Taiwan. No orders have been placed and the talks are preliminary, but the mere prospect of Apple diversifying its chip supply chain away from Taiwan sent Intel shares up 13% to a new record in Wednesday’s session.

Intel’s renaissance has been remarkable. First-quarter revenue grew 7.2% to $13.6 billion, beating estimates handily. The U.S. government’s 10% stake (valued at $8.9 billion), Nvidia’s $5 billion investment, and Intel’s recent addition to Elon Musk’s $25 billion Terafab AI chip consortium have all contributed to a more-than-100% stock gain over the past month alone.

Fed Decision Day: What to Watch

The FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting. The real action lies in the statement language and Powell’s characterization of the inflation trajectory amid the Iran-driven energy shock.

Anthropic Deepens Wall Street Ties

Anthropic unveiled 10 purpose-built AI agents for financial services on Wednesday, alongside a $1.5 billion joint venture with Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, and Hellman & Friedman. CEO Dario Amodei appeared on stage with JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon to announce the partnership, signaling that enterprise AI adoption in finance is accelerating faster than expected. Separately, OpenAI raised over $4 billion from Brookfield, Advent International, and Bain Capital, while China-backed DeepSeek is reportedly raising at a $45–50 billion valuation.

Global Markets

Asia-Pacific

The session was dominated by South Korea’s explosive rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.8%, buoyed by semiconductor names, with Tokyo Electron and Advantest both gaining over 5%. The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4% as Chinese chip stocks followed the Samsung tailwind, though gains were limited by ongoing property sector concerns. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.2%, and Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.7%.

Europe

European bourses opened modestly higher, trading in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed. The STOXX 600 is up 0.3% in early trading, with the FTSE 100 adding 0.4% and the DAX up 0.3%. ASML and other European semiconductor names are leading gains, riding the Samsung-fueled chip momentum. Energy stocks are lagging as Brent crude continues to drift lower.

Macro and Rates

Treasury yields are drifting lower this morning as bond traders position cautiously ahead of the FOMC. The 10-year yield sits at 4.35%, down 2 basis points from Wednesday’s close of 4.37%. The 2-year yield is at 3.85%, also off slightly, keeping the 2s/10s spread at approximately +50 basis points—the steepest positive curve configuration since the inversion ended.

The U.S. dollar is marginally weaker, with the DXY holding near 99.50 as the euro firms to 1.1790. Gold is catching a mild safe-haven bid at $4,552, up 0.3% but still contained below last week’s highs. The precious metal appears to be waiting for Powell’s press conference to establish directional conviction.

Oil continues its Iran-deal-driven descent. WTI is at $96.85, down 0.6% from Wednesday’s close of $97.42, as the Trump administration’s pause on its “Project Freedom” Strait of Hormuz escort operations signals growing confidence in diplomatic progress. Brent crude is testing the $100 level from below after breaching it on Wednesday. The $8+ decline in WTI over the past two sessions is a meaningful disinflationary tailwind if sustained.

Corporate News

Disney Earnings Beat

Walt Disney reported quarterly results after Wednesday’s close that beat on both the top and bottom line. Revenue exceeded estimates driven by strength in streaming (Disney+ turned a larger-than-expected profit) and the parks division under new CEO Josh D’Amaro. Shares jumped 4.5% in after-hours trading and are indicated in that range this morning.

Apollo Hits $1 Trillion AUM

Apollo Global Management crossed the $1 trillion assets-under-management threshold for the first time, reporting 30% growth in fee-related earnings. The milestone underscores the relentless march of alternative asset managers into mainstream allocation, with private credit and infrastructure leading inflows.

Other Corporate Developments

• Warner Bros. Discovery reported a $2.9 billion quarterly loss, weighed down by the Paramount deal termination fee.
• Uber missed earnings estimates on equity investment revaluation headwinds but reiterated strong bookings guidance and gross bookings growth of 18%.
• Morgan Stanley launched crypto trading on its E*Trade platform, charging 50 basis points per trade—a significant step toward mainstream brokerage crypto access.
• DOJ charged 30 individuals in a massive insider trading ring involving elite M&A lawyers and hedge fund operatives.
• Spirit Airlines appeared in court to begin the formal wind-down process, with analysts expecting the airline’s demise to push up domestic airfares.
• AB InBev shares surged 9% after reporting positive sales volume growth (+0.8%) for the first time in three years, led by a 27% jump in non-alcoholic beer revenue.
• Pfizer beat estimates ($14.5B revenue, $0.75 EPS) on cancer treatment strength, with Padcev operational revenue surging 39%.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

Today is a classic “wait-for-the-Fed” session. We expect a narrow, compressed trading range through the morning as institutional desks reduce risk ahead of the 2:00 PM announcement. The overnight Asia chip rally and Disney premarket bid create upward momentum, but traders will cap gains until Powell speaks.

Base Case (60% probability): The S&P 500 trades in a 7,265–7,320 range through the morning. If the Fed delivers a vanilla hold with no material change to the statement, expect a modest relief rally into the close with the index finishing near 7,310–7,330. The implied move priced by 0DTE options is roughly ±0.6%.

Bull Case (25% probability): Powell signals growing confidence that oil’s decline is easing inflation pressures, explicitly acknowledging that “risks are becoming more balanced.” This would ignite a broad rally in rate-sensitive sectors, pushing the S&P 500 toward 7,350–7,380 and driving the 10-year below 4.30%. Semiconductors would add to already-strong gains.

Bear Case (15% probability): Powell emphasizes “patience” and flags the energy pass-through risk to core inflation, effectively pushing rate cut expectations into late Q3 or Q4. The S&P 500 would give back 0.4–0.6% to test the 7,240 level, with growth stocks bearing the brunt and the VIX spiking toward 17–18.