The bottom line: Thursday morning is shaping up as the most painful session of the war so far. Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel overnight — its first triple-digit print since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — after Iran's newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy." The IEA's record 400-million-barrel coordinated reserve release, announced late Wednesday, has done nothing to arrest the rally. Three more commercial ships were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight. And the private credit sector is now facing its own reckoning, with JPMorgan marking down loan portfolios, Morgan Stanley capping fund redemptions, and Cliffwater facing a 14% investor exodus. If you only have 30 seconds: oil is running, equities are sinking, and the twin forces of energy stress and credit anxiety are feeding off each other.
Previous Close (Wednesday, March 11)
What Happened Overnight: A New Supreme Leader, a $100 Barrel, and Three More Ships Hit
1. Iran's New Supreme Leader Turns the Screws
Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed as Iran's supreme leader on March 9 after the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, issued his first public statement on Thursday. The 56-year-old hardliner declared that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should continue as a "tool to pressure the enemy" and called for the immediate closure of all U.S. military bases in the Middle East, warning that "those bases will be attacked."
He also stated that "Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs" and vowed to seek compensation from enemies "or destroy their assets accordingly." The comments, broadcast on state television, immediately pushed oil prices higher. President Trump responded by expressing "disappointment" in Khamenei's appointment, telling Fox News: "I don't believe he can live in peace."
2. Brent Crude Briefly Touches $100 a Barrel
Oil prices surged overnight despite the IEA's unprecedented reserve release announcement. Brent crude touched $100 per barrel before pulling back to trade around $99. WTI jumped 7% to approximately $94 per barrel. The IEA's agreement to release 400 million barrels — the largest in the organization's 52-year history — has failed to convince traders that the supply gap can be bridged.
As JPMorgan Commodities Research noted: the coordinated release amounts to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day, which is "insufficient to counter the potential loss of about 12 million barrels a day from a prolonged Hormuz shutdown." The U.S. component — 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, announced by Energy Secretary Chris Wright late Wednesday — will take about 120 days to deliver and 13 days just to reach the market after being greenlit.
Adding to the bearish supply picture: U.S. gas prices have already topped $3.50 per gallon, the highest since May 2024 and rising fast.
3. Three More Ships Struck in the Persian Gulf
Overnight attacks on commercial shipping continued to escalate. Three more foreign vessels were struck in the Persian Gulf, bringing the total number of maritime incidents since the war began to more than 20. A container ship was hit by an unknown projectile about 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali, a major port near Dubai in the UAE. All crew were safe, but a fire broke out onboard.
The attacks came after three separate ships — including one in the Strait of Hormuz itself — were struck on Wednesday. Energy Secretary Wright told CNBC Thursday that the U.S. Navy is "not ready" to escort oil tankers through the Strait, though he said it will likely be able to do so "by the end of the month." Traffic through the waterway has practically reached a standstill.
The Other Crisis: Private Credit Is Cracking
While geopolitics dominates the headlines, a second source of market stress is quietly intensifying. The $1.8 trillion private credit sector is facing what Pimco president Christian Stracke described as "a crisis of really bad underwriting."
Three major developments converged on Wednesday:
- JPMorgan marked down loan portfolios held as collateral from private credit firms, specifically targeting loans to software companies under pressure from AI disruption. The markdowns limit how much the affected funds can borrow, squeezing their ability to use cheap bank debt to boost returns.
- Morgan Stanley capped quarterly redemptions at 5% at its North Haven Private Income Fund after investors requested to repurchase nearly 11% of shares. The fund will return approximately 46% of what holders asked for in the first quarter.
- Cliffwater's flagship private credit fund saw redemption requests totaling 14% of its net asset value — a staggering figure for a sector where 5% quarterly caps are the norm.
The stress is rippling through public markets. Private credit-linked stocks have been hammered in 2026: Apollo is down 26%, KKR 31%, Blackstone 30%, and Ares 35%. Blue Owl Capital fell another 3.1% in premarket trading Thursday.
Economic Data: Solid Jobless Claims, Shrinking Trade Deficit
Thursday's economic data provides some pockets of resilience:
| Indicator | Actual | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | 213,000 | 215,000 | 214,000 |
| Trade Deficit (Jan) | $54.5B | $67.0B | $72.9B |
| Housing Starts (Jan) | 1.49M | 1.35M | 1.39M |
| Building Permits (Jan) | 1.38M | 1.41M | 1.46M |
Jobless claims were little changed at 213,000 — below expectations and suggesting the labor market remains firm. The trade deficit narrowed dramatically to $54.5 billion, down $18.4 billion from the prior month and well below the $67 billion forecast. However, this data covers the period prior to the Supreme Court decision that struck down many of Trump's IEEPA tariffs, so it may not reflect current dynamics. Housing starts jumped 7.2% to an annualized rate of 1.49 million — a bright spot for the residential construction sector.
Recall that yesterday's February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, meeting expectations. But as Goldman Sachs noted in a research note this morning, the bank has raised its inflation forecast slightly, citing oil as the "main transmission channel" from the war to the U.S. economy. March data will be the first to capture the full impact of surging energy costs.
Trade: New Section 301 Probes Target 16 Nations
Adding another layer of uncertainty, the Trump administration announced late Wednesday that it has launched new trade investigations into 16 countries, including the European Union, China, Mexico, and India. The probes are being conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits the U.S. to impose tariffs on imported goods from nations found to have engaged in unfair trade practices.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the investigations focus on "excess capacity and production in manufacturing" that have led to persistent trade surpluses. The move provides a new legal pathway for tariffs in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's ruling last month that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful.
Global Markets: Asia Falls, Europe Edges Lower
Asia-Pacific (Closed)
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 54,452.96 | -1.04% |
| Topix | 3,649.85 | -1.32% |
| Kospi | 5,583.25 | -0.48% |
| Hang Seng | — | -0.33% |
| CSI 300 | 4,687.56 | -0.36% |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,629 | -1.31% |
Asian markets fell across the board as oil volatility rattled investor confidence. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.04%, weighed down by real estate stocks, while Australia's ASX 200 declined 1.31%. South Korea's Kospi pared losses to end 0.48% lower, with the small-cap Kosdaq bucking the trend and rising 1.02%. China was the relative outperformer — some analysts are calling Chinese equities an "unlikely haven" amid the Iran oil shock, given China's diversified energy supply and lower direct exposure to the conflict.
Europe (Live)
The pan-European Stoxx 600 opened down 0.5% before paring losses to trade approximately 0.2% lower by midday in London. Banks dragged the index as concerns about Middle East exposure gathered steam — HSBC fell 5% after the bank closed its Qatar branches amid Tehran's threats to target economic assets associated with the U.S. and Israel in the region.
Notable European movers:
- Leonardo jumped 7% after the Italian defense giant reported revenues of 19.5 billion euros and guided for 21 billion euros in 2026, with cumulative orders of 142 billion euros over the next five years.
- Abivax surged 13% on renewed takeover rumors, with AstraZeneca reportedly the latest interested party.
- BMW reported net profit above consensus but flagged tariff-related burdens that could impact its automotive EBIT margin by 1.25 percentage points this year.
- Savills dropped 7.2% despite announcing a solid $1.1 billion acquisition of U.S.-based Eastdil Secured.
U.S. Pre-Market: Dow Futures Off 500 Points
U.S. stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 512 points, or 1.1%, in early trading. The S&P 500 lost 0.8%, as did the Nasdaq Composite. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.241%, reflecting both the inflationary impulse from oil and a cautious risk posture.
Selling is broad-based, with banks and tech stocks in the red. Energy stocks — including Chevron and Exxon Mobil — are among the few names in the green.
Premarket Movers
| Stock | Premarket Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Bumble (BMBL) | +21% | Strong Q4 adjusted EBITDA and revenue beat; Q1 guidance above consensus |
| Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) | +3% | Q4 earnings beat: adj. EPS $3.45 vs $2.87 est.; revenue $6.23B vs $6.07B |
| Netskope (NTSK) | -17% | Weak Q1 and full-year guidance below consensus |
| Blue Owl Capital (OWL) | -3.1% | Private credit sector stress; ongoing redemption pressure |
| Blackstone (BX) | -2% | Private credit fund withdrawal concerns |
| Apollo (APO) | -2% | Sector-wide private credit repricing |
Corporate News: Atlassian Cuts 10%, Meta Rolls Out Custom Chips
Atlassian Slashes 1,600 Jobs
Atlassian announced Wednesday that it is cutting 10% of its workforce — about 1,600 positions — to "self-fund further investment in AI and enterprise sales." The collaboration software company has lost more than half its value in 2026, with the stock down 84% from its 2021 peak as the AI-driven software selloff has hammered the sector. CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes cited the need to "strengthen our financial profile" alongside the AI pivot. The restructuring will result in $225-$236 million in charges.
Meta Debuts Custom AI Chips
Meta rolled out four custom in-house AI chips as part of its data center expansion, diversifying its silicon supply beyond Nvidia and AMD. The move signals Meta's intention to reduce dependence on third-party chip makers as it scales its AI infrastructure. The company recently completed major supply deals with both Nvidia and AMD, so the custom chips represent a complement rather than a replacement.
Earnings to Watch Today
Before the bell: Adobe, Dollar General, Dick's Sporting Goods (already reported), and Ulta Beauty. Adobe is a critical read on the SaaSpocalypse narrative — any AI-driven pressure on its creative software suite could amplify the broader software selloff.
What to Watch Today
- Oil price trajectory: Brent at $100 is a psychological threshold. If it holds above that level through the European and U.S. sessions, the inflation repricing accelerates. Watch whether the IEA provides a concrete timeline for reserve releases — vague commitments are being dismissed by the market.
- Strait of Hormuz shipping status: Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy will "likely" be ready to escort tankers "by the end of the month." Until then, the waterway is effectively closed. Any new ship attacks or mine discoveries could push oil beyond $100 decisively.
- Private credit contagion: After JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Cliffwater, watch for additional fund managers restricting redemptions. If the stress spreads to larger institutional allocators, the selling pressure on private credit-linked equities intensifies.
- Section 301 trade probe reaction: The EU, China, and other targets have not yet responded to the new investigations. Retaliatory rhetoric or tariff threats could add a second front of risk-off positioning.
- Treasury yield and Fed expectations: The 10-year yield is at 4.241%. Oil-driven inflation fears are pushing yields higher. Seven major central banks issue rate decisions next week — the Fed, BOE, BOJ, and others. Today's price action in bonds will set the tone for those decisions.
- Adobe earnings: As a bellwether for the software sector, Adobe's results and guidance will either validate or challenge the SaaSpocalypse narrative. A strong report could offer a lifeline to beaten-down software names; a miss deepens the rout.
The AlphaEdge Take: What to Expect Today
Thursday is shaping up as a session where multiple risk factors converge simultaneously — and that is precisely what makes it dangerous. The market can absorb any one of these shocks in isolation: an oil spike, a private credit scare, a trade probe escalation. When all three hit at once, correlations rise and diversification breaks down.
Scenario 1: Oil stabilizes below $100, private credit fears contained. This is the optimistic case but it requires two things to go right — neither of which is in the market's control. If Brent pulls back toward $95 and no additional funds announce redemption caps, the S&P 500 could stabilize with losses of 0.3-0.5%. Energy stocks continue to outperform. Tech stays under pressure but avoids a rout.
Scenario 2: Oil breaks decisively above $100, private credit stress spreads. This is the scenario gaining probability. Brent above $100 forces a fundamental repricing of inflation expectations, corporate margins, and consumer spending assumptions. If another major private credit fund restricts redemptions, the financials-led selloff deepens. The S&P 500 could lose 1.0-1.5%, with banks and private equity names leading the decline. The VIX spikes and safe-haven flows benefit Treasuries despite the inflationary backdrop.
Scenario 3: A geopolitical wildcard shifts sentiment. Any hint of diplomatic progress — a ceasefire proposal, a Hormuz reopening timeline, or a credible Navy escort announcement — could reverse the oil trade violently, just as Trump's "very soon" comment did on Sunday. In this scenario, oil collapses 10-15% and equities surge on a relief rally. But nothing in Khamenei's statement Thursday suggests this is imminent.
Our base case leans toward Scenario 2 — a difficult day where the convergence of oil, credit, and trade risks keeps sellers in control. The S&P 500's pullback from its January record is still only 3.2%, which feels remarkably modest given the backdrop. That gap between fundamentals and price action may start to close today.
For longer-term investors: Energy remains the clear beneficiary of this environment. Chevron and Exxon are printing money at $94 WTI. On the other side, the private credit unwind creates potential opportunities in high-quality public credit and investment-grade bonds once the dust settles. Gold's refusal to rally despite the geopolitical chaos is worth noting — it may be telling us that markets believe the war is ultimately contained, even if the timeline is uncertain.
For active traders: Volatility is your friend today, but position sizing is everything. The overnight futures session has already seen massive swings. If you are adding exposure, wait for the U.S. open to confirm direction — the first 30 minutes will be telling. Tight stops are mandatory. Energy longs and financials shorts are the highest-conviction pair trades in this environment.
We will publish an end-of-day wrap once the session closes. Stay sharp — today has the potential to be the most consequential trading day since the war began.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. AlphaEdge does not provide personalized investment recommendations. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Market data as of pre-market, March 12, 2026. Sources include CNBC, MarketWatch, Bloomberg, Reuters, Seeking Alpha, Morning Brew, Axios, Finimize, The Daily Upside, and Exec Sum.