Stocks Hold a Record as AMD’s Chip Earnings and JOLTS Loom and Palantir Surges

Georgi Kuzmanov Senior Equity Analyst & Founder Columbia MSFE · 13+ years equity research

The AI trade has a new question to answer, and it comes tonight. AMD reports after Tuesday’s close, and its data-center numbers are the week’s pivotal test: Microsoft and Amazon have confirmed that the hyperscalers are spending enormous sums on AI infrastructure, and AMD is the cleanest read on whether that spending is reaching a second merchant chipmaker or remaining concentrated in Nvidia. It is the report most capable of either broadening the AI rally or reinforcing the narrow-leadership worry that has shadowed it all year.

The setup is encouraging. Palantir reported Monday evening and delivered an AI-software blowout — accelerating US commercial revenue and a raised full-year outlook — and the stock surged in extended trading, a reminder that the demand for applied AI remains ferocious even if Palantir’s own valuation leaves no room for error. Futures are little changed at a record this morning, holding Monday’s gains as the market positions into the chip reports and the labor data.

The macro layer builds too. JOLTS job openings at 10 a.m. is the first of the week’s labor releases, a signpost toward Friday’s July payrolls, and Caterpillar reports before the open as the industrial bellwether. But make no mistake about the hierarchy: today is about AMD after the close, and the week is still about jobs on Friday.

Pre-Market Snapshot

Overnight Developments

Palantir’s AI-software blowout

Palantir opened the second earnings wave with a bang. The company reported accelerating US commercial revenue — the segment the market watches most closely as a gauge of enterprise AI adoption — beat on earnings, and raised its full-year guidance, and the shares jumped sharply in after-hours trading. The result is a powerful signal that demand for applied AI software is not slowing. The caveat is valuation: Palantir trades at one of the richest multiples in the entire market, and a blowout quarter is the minimum its price demands. It is the clearest example of the priced-for-perfection dynamic running through the AI complex — extraordinary results that still leave no margin for a stumble.

AMD is tonight’s main event

All eyes now turn to AMD after the close. The number that matters is data-center GPU revenue and the accompanying AI outlook: with the hyperscalers’ capital spending confirmed as accelerating, the market wants evidence that a meaningful share is flowing to AMD’s accelerators rather than concentrating entirely in Nvidia. A strong print and a raised AI guide would broaden the semiconductor trade and validate a group priced for growth; a soft one would puncture that optimism and reinforce the narrow-leadership concern. Super Micro reports the same evening as the corroborating tell on AI-server demand.

Caterpillar and the industrial read

Before the bell, Caterpillar offers a window into the physical economy. As the classic global industrial bellwether, its order backlog, pricing power, and commentary on the new tariff regime read directly on manufacturing demand and the health of construction and mining. A solid backlog would reinforce the soft-landing narrative; cautious guidance on tariffs or demand would be an early warning. Pfizer, Amgen, and Marriott round out a busy morning of results across healthcare and travel.

Global Markets

Asian markets were firm, buoyed by Palantir’s after-hours surge and the resilient AI theme. Taiwan’s Taiex led with a 0.9% gain as the chip names rallied ahead of AMD, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 firmed 0.4% to near 75,940, China’s Shanghai Composite was little changed around 4,275, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.5% to about 25,560. The semiconductor supply chain set the tone, positioning for a strong AMD read.

Europe was mixed to modestly firmer. Germany’s DAX hovered near 26,380, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2% to around 8,850, Britain’s FTSE 100 was little changed near 10,955 as energy remained a drag on the softer oil, and the Euro Stoxx 50 firmed modestly. Regional trade was quiet, taking its cue from the US technology tape and awaiting the American labor data later in the week.

Macro and Rates

The bond market held steady ahead of the first labor read of the week. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.34% and the 2-year near 3.99%, keeping the 2s/10s spread at a positive 35 basis points as the front end continues to discount a September cut, which futures price at roughly a two-thirds probability. JOLTS job openings this morning is a second-tier release relative to Friday’s payrolls, but a sharp move — particularly a drop below 7 million openings — would feed the softening-labor-market narrative and reinforce the cut. The quits rate within the report is worth watching as a gauge of worker confidence.

Across other assets, the dollar was soft near 98.5 on the ICE index, gold firm at $4,160, and crude eased again to $69.20 as the market continued to digest the weekend OPEC+ output increase. Bitcoin held near $75,200, consolidating its record run. The macro backdrop remains benign and supportive, with the softer oil price a quiet disinflationary tailwind into a week whose central question is whether the labor market is cooling at a pace that keeps the Fed on track to ease.

Corporate News

Earnings & Analyst Actions

• AMD (AMD): Reports after the close; data-center GPU revenue and the AI outlook are the pivotal numbers for the whole semiconductor complex.
• Palantir (PLTR): Surged after hours on accelerating US commercial AI revenue and a raised full-year guide; valuation remains the debate.
• Caterpillar (CAT): Reports before the open; backlog, pricing, and tariff commentary are the read on the industrial economy.
• Super Micro (SMCI): Reports tonight alongside AMD; AI-server demand and margins are the watch items.
• Pfizer, Amgen, Marriott: Round out a heavy morning across healthcare and travel, offering read-throughs on the consumer and pharma pricing.

Premarket Movers

Economic Calendar

The AlphaEdge Prediction

The most likely session is a quiet, record-holding Tuesday, with the semiconductor group firm on Palantir’s read-through and the broad index drifting in a narrow range as the market waits for AMD after the close. Expect JOLTS to be looked through unless it surprises sharply, Caterpillar’s industrial read to shade sector sentiment, and the tape’s real direction to be set at 4 p.m. rather than during the session.

Base case: The S&P 500 trades a 7,890–7,935 range and closes little changed near its record, with chips firm into the AMD print and energy a modest drag.

Bull case: A steady JOLTS report and continued AI momentum carry the index toward 7,950, setting up a test of that resistance on a strong AMD number tonight.

Bear case: A weak JOLTS print, cautious Caterpillar guidance, or pre-AMD de-risking pulls the S&P back toward 7,870 as the market trims risk into the binary.

Today’s regular session is a placeholder, because the information the market actually wants arrives after the bell — AMD’s data-center number is the breadth test that decides whether the AI trade is widening beyond Nvidia or staying dangerously narrow, and Palantir’s surge is the reminder that in this complex even a blowout is only just enough; hold the AI winners that keep earning their gains, but respect that this is a week of back-to-back binaries with AMD tonight and payrolls Friday, and a record tape carrying a 13.8 VIX has priced very little room for either to disappoint.

Georgi Kuzmanov

Senior Equity Analyst & Founder at AlphaEdge. Columbia University MSFE (2011–2013). Covering equities, macro, and geopolitics for serious investors.